The Indiana Pacers won their 10th game as an underdog this postseason on Thursday night, beating the Oklahoma City Thunder 108-91 in Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Finals and covering as 5.5-point underdogs. The game stayed under the total for the fourth time this series.
Indiana opened the series as a huge +550 underdog at BetMGM, while Oklahoma City was a massive -800 favorite. If the Pacers end up winning Game 7, it would be one of the biggest Finals upsets in NBA history.
The Thunder opened as 8.5-point home favorites in Game 7, but the line has drifted down to -6.5 as of Sunday morning. Multiple sportsbooks Yahoo Sports reached out to reported taking sharp action on the Pacers to cover, including a $30,000 wager on Indiana +7.5 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. The total is the lowest in the series at 214.5. The betting public is evenly split on Game 7, with 51% of wagers at BetMGM on the Thunder to cover.
Yahoo Sports asked handicapper Jon Metler for his thoughts on Game 7 of the Finals and some best bets:
Game 7: Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-6.5, 214.5)
Metler: “Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s assists prop opened at 5.5 with increased juice to the over. That’s a really low total for SGA in general, but when you consider the spot, it really jumps off the page. The Thunder will want the ball in SGA’s hands as much as possible in Game 7, and he’ll likely play 40-plus minutes.
“SGA’s assists prop has dropped throughout the series because he’s had a few rough games in that department, but the final box scores don’t fully reflect what’s happening. Game 4 is a perfect example: He recorded zero assists, but had eight potential assists — they just didn’t convert. In Game 6, he had only two assists, but again tallied eight potential assists. The low conversion rate, combined with reduced minutes due to a blowout, skewed the numbers.
“These games have tanked his assists line in the market, but that’s good for us — it’s opened up a chance to attack the lower total and even take a shot at the alternate over of 6.5 (+132), which I believe should be trading closer to -115. There’s solid value on this number, and the fact that his role players and shooters are back home should help, too. In the last home game (Game 5), they converted 10 assists for SGA.”
Best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 6.5 assists (+132)
Metler: “Just pause and think about this for a second: You’re getting Tyrese Haliburton over 7.5 assists at +144. Imagine if I told you this price during the regular season. I know it’s the Thunder defense, but 7.5 at +144? Come on. You were typically seeing 9.5 or even 10.5 for Haliburton’s assists prop, with the over trading around -110 back then.
“Similar to the SGA prop, look at the spot — it’s Game 7 of the NBA Finals, where his usage and minutes should be as high as possible. Yes, Haliburton is nursing a calf injury, but I thought he looked completely fine in Game 6. If anything, the injury is what’s creating this value.
“His totals dropped heading into Game 6 due to uncertainty around his minutes and the injury, and they didn’t adjust much after Game 6 because he only played 23 minutes due to the blowout. If Haliburton plays 35 minutes in that game, he likely smashes all of his totals — and the numbers for Game 7 would look very different.
“I believe this prop should be trading closer to -120 for Haliburton in Game 7, which is why I’m hitting the button on +144.”
Best bet: Tyrese Haliburton 8+ assists (+144)
