Following his Monday meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, President Trump took his latest and largest steps towards tightening the screws on Moscow for continuing and even escalating its war on Ukraine, and rejecting the numerous proposals his administration has offered to establish a stable ceasefire. This is a vastly different approach than the Obama-like reset with Russia that Trump sought in the first months of his administration. However, it is consistent with his pledge to establish a national security policy of peace through strength and his statements the first week in office that he would put pressure on the party to this war that obstructed his efforts to end it.
This new Trump approach is based on two lines of pressure: weapons for Ukraine and reduced revenue flows for Russia’s economy. Trump’s announcement means that he has not only restored the weapons pipeline to Ukraine that had been approved by Congress and the Biden administration last year, but he is sending billions of dollars of additional weapons.
Trump himself only mentioned Patriot batteries and missiles, essential to stop Russian ballistic missiles targeting Ukraine’s cities, but Rutte also mentioned missiles that could be used to blunt Moscow’s military offensives.
Rutte came to Washington because NATO members will purchase the U.S. weapons and transfer them to Ukraine; this meets Trump’s requirement that U.S. aid to Ukraine end. Nonetheless, this is a significant message to Moscow: If the U.S. weapons supply does not end with the Biden pipeline, Putin’s plans to achieve effective control of Ukraine by additional territorial conquest will be far harder to achieve.
That goal will be harder still to reach because at the same time Trump announced plans to add pressure on Moscow’s stuttering economy by placing secondary sanctions on Russia’s trading partners in the form of 100 percent tariffs if Russia does not agree to a peace with Ukraine within 50 days. Moscow has been dependent on trade, especially purchases of its oil and gas, ever since the West placed major sanctions on Russia after the big invasion of February 2022.
Since then, Moscow has used a “ghost fleet” of oil tankers either registered in other countries or unregistered to circumvent the U.S.-led $60 oil price cap to deliver the product. According to the Kyiv School of Economics, this was worth $9.4 billion in revenue last year to Moscow, though its total oil and gas revenues are far higher. Denying Moscow this and additional revenues would be a real blow to its war economy.
These steps point to a welcome realism in the White House about Putin’s intentions and Russia’s danger to our interests, but alone they will prove inadequate to force him to negotiate a stable ceasefire or peace deal. His goal remains to achieve effective political control of Ukraine by seizing more territory on the battlefield. That includes Kharkiv and Sumy in the east, Kyiv and all major cities on the Dnipro River, Odesa and Ukraine’s remaining Black Sea coast.
He believes that by constant assaults on the frontlines, even with high Russian casualties, and constant bombing of Ukrainian cities, he can impose his will on Kyiv and outlast the West, starting with the U.S. This perception persists in Moscow even after Monday’s announcement. Konstantin Kosachev, the deputy speaker of Russia’s upper legislative body, called the announcement “much ado about nothing” because “in 50 days so much can change both on the battlefield and in the moods of the powers that be in the U.S. and NATO.”
The administration needs to eschew the ad hoc and incremental approach of the Biden team and put together a long-term strategy that blocks Russian gains at the front, weakens the Russian war economy and bolsters Ukraine’s ability to not just continue to fight, but to fight more effectively. What might this look like? Yes, we should try to address the immediate air defense needs by getting Ukraine more Patriot batteries and far more interceptor missiles, but our operational goal should be to help Ukraine stop any further Russian gains on the battlefield. That requires a close assessment of what they need to do that.
On the economic side, besides reducing Kremlin oil and gas revenues, the U.S., working with allies and partners, should impose sanctions on countries like China, providing dual-use technology for Russian weapons. We can also announce our intention — in consultation with our G7 partners — to arrange the use of the nearly $300 billion of frozen Russian state assets to help Ukraine if Russian offensive operations do not cease by, again, a not distant date certain.
Following his strike on Iran, President Trump is in a unique position to dissuade Saudi Arabia from renewing its threats not to buy Eurobonds if those assets are transferred.
Over the past four months the administration has learned beyond a shadow of doubt that Moscow has no interest in peace. Only strong measures methodically pursued can persuade Moscow to accept a durable peace for a secure and economically viable Ukraine and reestablished security in Europe.
John Herbst is senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.
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