I had a totally different column written for today but tore it up, because President Trump’s dramatic crash in a whole series of recent polls is mesmerizing, demanding our attention.
At the beginning of March, I argued here that the worm was beginning to turn on Trump. A month later, as April dawned, I suggested Trump had gone too far and voters were concerned.
Now, as May approaches, Trump is suffering a broad-based crash.
To be sure, it’s not a total collapse — worse numbers are possible, and Trump’s image is not beyond repair. But all the recent polls tell a dismal story about the president’s standing with the American public.
Trump’s crash is evident across a variety of indicia:
Trump’s approval rating, the single most significant poll number for any president, is lower than that of any president in modern history after 100 days in office.
The disaffection goes beyond generalized discomfort. Americans now disapprove of Trump’s handling of almost every major problem, including immigration, his longtime strength.
Voters also now reject Trump’s positions and arguments on a wide range of issues.
Presidents’ political power is directly proportional to their approval ratings. Politicians fear crossing a president with 70 percent approval and fear being seen with a president sporting a 30 percent approval rating.
Presidential approval is directly correlated with both legislative success and with his party’s fate on Election Day.
On average, the four most recent quality national polls (released as of Monday) find only 43 percent approving of Trump’s performance, while 55 percent disapprove. The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll pegs approval at just 39 percent with 55 percent disapproving — that’s 16 points net negative.
Moreover, voters now disapprove of Trump’s handling of almost every key issue.
He won importantly on the economy, but his ratings on handling this issue are 22 points net negative in both the ABC/Washington Post and CNN polls; 16 points net negative in the CBS poll and 13 points in the New York Times/Sienna survey.
Immigration was another pillar of Trump’s victory and another issue arena where voters now disapprove of his performance.
Net disapproval of Trump on immigration ranges from minus-2 to minus-9 in the four polls — much better than the economy to be sure. But the fact that more people disapprove than approve of Trump’s work on his signature issue is striking.
Trump’s net negatives on these two crucial issues should be sufficient to strike fear in the hearts of Republicans running in anything close to a swing district.
But the rejection of Trump is even broader. In addition to the economy and immigration, majorities disapprove of his handling of foreign affairs, managing the federal government, “looking out for the interests of average Americans,” “stock market turmoil,” tariffs and inflation.
Majorities also oppose a raft of specific Trump policies.
Over 60 percent of Americans oppose shutting down the Department of Education, instituting tariffs, cutting back environmental regulations, freezing foreign aid, ending birthright citizenship, reducing federal funding for medical research, taking control of Greenland or Canada, increasing the role of the federal government in how universities operate, and Trump being more involved in American arts and culture institutions, such as the Kennedy Center and the Smithsonian.
Two-thirds even take Harvard’s side in the university’s clash with Trump and believe federal judges should be able to block questionable administration policy until a trial is held.
Never before has a president presented so broad an agenda, so thoroughly rejected by the public.
One could imagine a situation where voters disapprove of the president’s handling of an issue but accept his rationale. That would suggest room to turn things around.
However, on many core agenda items voters reject Trump’s predicates.
At the broadest level, just 43 percent believe “Trump’s approach has been a necessary shake up in Washington,” while 57 percent are convinced “Trump’s approach has unnecessarily put the country at risk.”
Sixty-four percent believe Trump is going too far in “trying to expand the power of the president” and 62 percent say this administration does not respect the rule of law.
Seven in 10 say tariffs will increase prices. Majorities oppose deporting all those who are undocumented and believe immigration is good for our country.
Desperately scouring the polls for any good news, all the president’s sycophants have reached for the fact that despite the national antipathy to Trump, voters are more likely to trust him to deal with the nations’ key problems than Democrats in Congress (although only 37 percent trust Trump on that issue).
While this bespeaks Democrats’ need for a positive agenda, if “Democrats in Congress” were running against Trump this might be meaningful, but in fact this question is not strongly correlated with any real-world outcome.
Despite it, when asked who they would vote for in a congressional race, Democrats lead by an average of 5 points. Republicans won the House vote by 2.6 points in 2024.
If you’re a Republican who won by less than 10 points, you are either frightened or foolish.
Mellman is president of The Mellman Group a consultancy that has helped elect 30 U.S. senators, 12 governors and dozens of House members. Mellman served as pollster to Senate Democratic leaders for over 30 years and is a member of the American Association of Political Consultants’ Hall of Fame.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.
