In any drawn-out military confrontation, the U.S. must support its ground forces with food, fuel, ammunition and weapons. In a conflict with China over Taiwan, however, that material will be coming from as far away as the Philippines and Japan.
That means relying on the large, mostly unarmed, civilian-crewed ships, such as those operated by the Military Sealift Command, which are highly visible and vulnerable to attack. Military Sealift Command ships could be overwhelmed by the numerically superior and militarized Chinese “fishing fleet.”
A less vulnerable and more scalable method would be to use low-cost, rapidly built, small autonomous surface vessels to deliver supplies.
Each could carry one or two standard shipping containers. They could work together in swarms of tens or hundreds, presenting a more dispersed, and therefore, challenging target. Even if a substantial number were to be attacked, damaged or sunk, it is unlikely that the adversary could destroy the entire logistical supply chain to the front line.
This would be a radical departure from traditional logistics supply using large manned cargo ships. Spreading cargo between many smaller watercraft almost eliminates the risk that all supplies would be lost to an attack. Water-line hugging vessels present a far smaller signature for detection.
Unmanned vessels would reduce the risk of human casualties and mitigate the acute civilian workforce shortages at the Military Sealift Command. Such software-driven ships would allow rapid updates to adapt to changing conditions to evade enemies or inclement weather.
Such small watercraft also don’t require a port; they could arrive almost anywhere, bringing materiel closer to the fight. They might even deliver supplies just-in-time, loitering near conflict zones as an offshore warehouse.
Importantly, a fleet of such small ships could be manufactured quickly in the United States. Adaptive manufacturing techniques like 3D printing could ramp up production in the event of a conflict, while being able to ramp down in its aftermath.
This type of autonomous vessel could provide the U.S. with advanced logistics difficult for adversaries to counter. But like any new concept, it faces risks and constraints.
Open-ocean operation and the potential of disrupted or blocked communication or hacking means that each vessel has to be capable of independently accomplishing its mission. In the best of cases, autonomous operation allows coordination and collective control, but it will certainly pose technological challenges in development, testing and validation.
Offloading cargo without a crew or port is another major hurdle. But if the Pentagon committed to distributed logistics delivery, that would likely lead to technological advancements to solve this knotted last-mile problem.
Military planners must also consider the maritime laws and regulations of U.S. allies and partners, including rights of way and environmental impacts inside territorial waters. This could demand significant and urgent diplomatic efforts in a time of conflict, although that might be mitigated if that nation itself is under threat from the adversary.
In international waters, the jurisdiction and regulation shifts primarily to the International Maritime Organization, the United Nations agency that developed the maritime shipping “rules of the road.” These rules will need to be modified if swarms of autonomous vessels are to operate legally in the open seas.
These aren’t negligible issues. However, similar challenges have been overcome in recent years, including those dealing with the building, testing, verifying and deploying the complex software for the U.S. Navy’s Aegis command/control system and the software for the F-35 fighter aircraft.
In the end, sustaining warfighting in a chain of Indo-Pacific islands against a potent adversary offers few traditional choices. The challenge requires clear thinking about new methods of supply delivery that are robust, scalable and resilient.
Kanna Rajan is a senior scientist at RAND, whose multidisciplinary research spans artificial intelligence, ocean science and robotics. Karlyn Stanley is a senior policy researcher at RAND and a subject matter expert on the legal and policy dimensions of autonomous vehicles.
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