A recent poll conducted by Independent Women of 600 likely New Jersey voters reveals a fault line that could jeopardize Democratic chances in the 2025 election, and provide Republicans in a state formerly considered deep blue a shot at the governor’s mansion: gender ideology.
While President Donald Trump is underwater in favorability among New Jersey voters – no surprise given the political leanings of the state – even voters who don’t support Trump oppose radical gender ideology positions like including biological men in women’s sports and admitting men to women’s private spaces. And may well turn out to be a problem for Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill, whose congressional record reflects voting against limiting women’s sports to, well, women – twice.
Sherrill has also touted her endorsement by Rep. Sarah McBride of Delaware, the first trans-identifying male in the House of Representatives, as well as her endorsement by the Garden State Equality Action Fund, essentially the lobbying arm of LGBT+ activists. Despite all that, she’s attempted to portray herself as a moderate on the issue.
In the Independent Women poll, which was focused on moderate liberals, true moderates, and moderate conservatives – likely voters whose records showed they might select either candidate in the gubernatorial race – many voters were unaware of the positions Sherrill has taken, including her two on-the-record votes in Congress. When informed about them, the majority of moderate voters said they were notably less likely to support Sherrill’s bid for governor.
Their reaction suggests that the two-thirds of voters polled who said a candidate’s stance on these issues will affect their vote aren’t kidding around. Thirty-eight percent further said the issue of women’s sports ranked among their top three issues in this election, with another 33% saying that it’s important to them even if it doesn’t make their top three.
Another sleeper issue under the gender ideology umbrella getting less attention than women’s sports is New Jersey’s policy to allow men, even convicted sex offenders, into women’s prisons if they self-identify as female. It’s a policy that sounds so shocking that most voters don’t yet know it happens – over half of those polled hadn’t heard about it – but when confronted with the information about those policies, voters reacted with near-universal worry. By the time polled voters read that these prison transfers have already led to abuse and sexual assault in women’s prisons, more than 90% of them found these policies concerning.
The specifics of this new poll underscore what we’ve known for a while: a strong majority of American voters have had it with the lie that a man can transform into a woman, especially when continuing to pretend that’s possible is costing women and girls medals they deserved to earn, dignity in their private spaces, and even their safety.
As in 2024, Democrats’ extremism on gender issues gives Republicans the opportunity to highlight that their positions align much more closely not just with conservative voters’ views, but with all voters’ views. The lack of knowledge about Sherrill’s voting record and public embrace of gender ideology suggests that, if Republicans can inform voters about what’s going on in their state, and where Sherrill stands, voters may swing their way.
In a tight race, and in a state that has already bucked its deep blue reputation by delivering a close match in 2021 with the same Republican candidate, Jack Ciattarelli, at the top of the ticket, these are fed up voters Democrats can’t afford to lose. Republicans hoping to turn a blue state red should take note.
