NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) presents a high-stakes investment opportunity, poised to capitalize on soaring energy demand from artificial intelligence and global decarbonization efforts with its certified Small Modular Reactor (SMR) technology. While the company boasts a significant regulatory lead and a growing pipeline of interest, recent project cancellations and ongoing cash burn highlight the substantial risks and long timelines inherent in bringing this transformative technology to commercial scale.
The global energy landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by an insatiable demand for reliable, clean power. At the forefront of this shift is NuScale Power, a company striving to revolutionize nuclear energy with its innovative Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). While its stock surged over 213% in 2025, reaching a market cap of $10 billion, the journey has been anything but smooth, marked by significant achievements and notable setbacks.
For long-term investors, understanding the intricate balance between NuScale’s pioneering technology, its financial health, and the burgeoning market for distributed, carbon-free energy is crucial. Our deep dive explores whether NuScale can truly fulfill its promise as a cornerstone of the future energy grid.
The Promise of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
Decades of ambition for small-scale nuclear power are finally nearing reality, largely thanks to companies like NuScale. Unlike traditional, massive nuclear plants that require immense upfront capital and years of on-site construction, SMRs are a newer generation of reactors designed to be:
- Factory-Built: Allowing for standardization, quality control, and reduced construction times.
- Modular and Scalable: Customers can combine multiple modules (e.g., 6 to 12) to meet specific energy needs.
- More Flexible: Better suited to integrate with existing grids and renewable energy sources.
- Safer: Engineered with passive safety features that require no operator action or AC power to shut down and cool.
- Cost-Competitive: Potential for improved economics due to modular construction and economies of scale.
These advantages make SMRs particularly appealing for diverse applications, from replacing fossil fuel power plants in utilities to powering remote communities and, critically, feeding the colossal energy demands of next-generation data centers.
NuScale’s First-Mover Advantage in Certification
Founded in 2007 with initial funding from the United States Department of Energy (DOE), NuScale has invested approximately $1.8 billion into developing its technology. This long-term commitment has paid off in one critical area: regulatory certification. In 2023, NuScale made history by receiving the first-ever Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) design certification for its 50 MWe (megawatt-electric) SMR model. Building on this, the company secured certification for a larger 77 MWe model in May 2025.
This achievement provides NuScale with a significant, quantifiable first-mover advantage. While competitors like Oklo, Westinghouse, and GE Vernova are actively developing their own SMR designs, none have yet achieved full NRC certification. NuScale is estimated to be one to three years ahead in this crucial process, allowing it to begin securing orders and proving its technology in real-world environments before others can catch up.
The company’s standard power module, the NuScale Power Module™ (NPM), is a small, safe, pressurized water reactor. It can generate 77 MWe (or 250 MWt) and can be scaled to meet customer needs through flexible configurations, including the four-module VOYGR-4 (308 MWe), six-module VOYGR-6 (462 MWe), and twelve-module VOYGR-12 (924 MWe) power plants.
Setbacks and Financial Realities
Despite its technological and regulatory lead, NuScale has faced considerable headwinds. In November 2023, the company announced the cancellation of its flagship project, the Carbon Free Power Project (CFPP) with the Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS). The project, intended to be the first commercial deployment of NuScale’s SMR technology, was terminated after estimated costs soared from an initial $3.6 billion to $9.3 billion, leading several consortium members to withdraw from the deal. This cancellation resulted in a $50 million charge for NuScale and significantly impacted its revenue, as detailed in its public filings, according to an official SEC filing.
The CFPP cancellation was a major blow, as NuScale had no other confirmed orders for its SMR technology at the time. This setback contributed to a 74% plummet in its stock price since its 2023 IPO via a SPAC merger. The company also reduced its workforce by 28% in the first quarter of 2024 to manage costs amidst a challenging commercialization period.
Financially, NuScale remains a money-losing operation, investing heavily in research and development. Its cash burn rate is estimated at around $20 million per quarter, and with $132 million in cash and equivalents on hand as of its first-quarter 2024 earnings, it has approximately six quarters of liquidity. While a Department of Energy (DOE) notice of intent for $900 million to fund SMR technologies could provide a lifeline, the need for additional capital raises could lead to shareholder dilution.
The AI and Clean Energy Demand Catalysts
Despite these challenges, the long-term outlook for SMRs, and NuScale specifically, is bolstered by two undeniable trends: the explosion in global energy demand driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the urgent push for carbon-free energy sources worldwide.
Data centers, the backbone of the AI revolution, are becoming enormous energy consumers. Goldman Sachs projects data center power demand to grow 15% annually through 2030, with energy consumption in the U.S. alone expected to jump from 3% to 8% of total demand by that year. Big tech companies are “all in” on nuclear, deploying billions into restarting old facilities and building new ones, recognizing that large amounts of reliable, local energy are crucial for power-hungry data centers.
Beyond AI, the global climate crisis is driving nations to decarbonize their energy grids. Estonia, for instance, has committed to ending its reliance on oil shale by 2030 and is actively evaluating SMR technology. Fermi Energia, an Estonian energy company, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with NuScale to explore deploying a VOYGR™ SMR power plant to meet clean, baseload energy needs by 2031. This demonstrates strong international interest in NuScale’s flexible and carbon-free solution.
Such geopolitical and environmental pressures create a significant demand runway for NuScale’s offerings, which can serve electrical generation, district heating, desalination, and commercial-scale hydrogen production.
According to reports from the International Energy Agency, the increasing digitalization and AI boom are set to significantly boost global electricity demand, underscoring the critical need for advanced power solutions like SMRs.
Competition and the Path Forward
NuScale is not alone in the SMR race. Other key players include:
- Oklo: Developing compact liquid-metal fast reactors, which can run on recycled nuclear fuel and offer even smaller footprints suitable for remote areas.
- Westinghouse: Co-owned by Brookfield Renewable and Cameco, with a project planned in the U.K., though still awaiting full certification.
- GE Vernova: Through its partially owned GE Hitachi, has exposure to SMRs, offering a simpler boiling water design.
While NuScale currently holds a certification lead, these competitors offer diverse technologies that could gain traction depending on market needs. Monitoring their progress in the next two to five years will be critical for investors.
NuScale management believes its first commercial order could be made official by the end of 2025. The company has already lined up necessary materials and outsourcing partners and has a dozen reactors under construction, enough to fulfill initial orders. Even with an order, construction timelines are long, with projects potentially not fully operational until 2030. However, revenue generation would begin well before project completion, fueling further investment and excitement in the sector.
Investment Outlook: A Long-Term, High-Risk Bet
NuScale Power represents an intriguing, albeit high-risk, opportunity for patient investors with a long-term horizon. The company’s pioneering SMR technology, coupled with its regulatory certifications, positions it as a potential leader in a rapidly emerging market driven by escalating energy demand and decarbonization goals.
However, the journey to profitability will be protracted and uncertain. The cancellation of the CFPP, ongoing cash burn, and the inherent challenges of large-scale infrastructure projects mean that significant risks remain. Future capital raises and potential dilution of existing shareholders are possibilities.
For aggressive investors willing to bet on the future of clean energy and ride out the inevitable volatility, NuScale offers substantial upside potential. However, for those with a shorter investment horizon or a more conservative approach, NuScale’s path to consistent commercial operations and profitability remains highly unpredictable.
