A scrappy 1-under 69 in 25-mph gusts keeps Nick Taylor tied for the lead at 9 under, but 11 players sit within two shots—setting up a weekend sprint where the defending champ must outlast a pack of young guns and major winners to make it four straight years with a PGA Tour title.
Waialae’s new beast mode exposes the field
Thursday’s 62 felt like a tropical honeymoon. Friday the island showed its teeth. Trade winds flipped 180°, gusts topped 25 mph, and the average score jumped nearly three full strokes. Taylor still found four birdies, but every par felt like a small miracle—especially the par-3 fifth where he stuffed a 6-iron to 18 inches after watching Collin Morikawa rinse one en route to a missed cut.
Taylor’s secret weapon: the hottest putter on Tour
Since the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, no player has rolled it better from 10-15 feet on poa greens. Taylor’s 1.43 strokes gained putting Friday pushes his two-day tally to +3.12, best in the 144-man field. He needed every one of them; he hit only nine greens after finding 14 on Thursday. The math is simple: if the wind stays angry, the guy who can manufacture 20-footers holds the hammer.
Log-jam leaderboard: five co-leaders, 11 within two
Taylor’s name sits on top, but he’s sharing oxygen with four players who’d love to steal the crown:
- Kevin Roy – Tour rookie who birdied the brutal ninth to stay perfect on par-4s this week.
- Davis Riley – Friday’s low round (64) featured a back-nine 30 that vaulted him from 23rd to tied first.
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart – The Belgian phenom, 23, is making only his eighth Tour start and already flirting with a maiden win.
- S.H. Kim – Korean closer who went 67-68-66 here last year before a Sunday 73; he’s clearly learned the Sunday script.
One shot back, Maverick McNealy and Chris Gotterup lurk at 8 under—both top-10 in driving distance this season, a huge edge if the wind relaxes and scoring windows open.
Historical pressure: four straight years with a win?
Only six active Tour pros have strung victories in four consecutive seasons: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, and Xander Schauffele. Taylor, 37, would become the oldest to do it since Phil Mickelson in 2012. The statistical model at PGATour.com gives him a 19% probability—fifth-best in the field—but that jumps to 34% if wind stays above 20 mph because of his elite short game.
Weekend forecast: more wind, more chaos
Saturday’s gusts are projected 22-28 mph out of the northeast—identical to Friday’s torture. Waialae’s closing stretch (Nos. 15-18) plays directly into it, meaning the player who survives 15-17 in even par will likely own the 54-hole lead. Taylor’s career scoring average on those holes is 0.8 shots better than the field, the best of any co-leader.
What the fans are buzzing about
Canadian supporters flooded social media with #MapleMagic after Taylor’s par-save bomb on 18, but the real debate is whether he can hold off the bomber brigade if Sunday calms. If the wind dies, Taylor concedes 25 yards off the tee to McNealy and Gotterup. His counter: a proven recipe of fairway-findng 3-wood and dagger putter that turned the 2024 Canadian Open into a national holiday north of the border.
The cut-line carnage
Waialae bit hard. Pre-tournament favorites Collin Morikawa and Keegan Bradley packed early after 36-hole totals of even par—Morikawa’s first missed cut since the 2024 Open Championship. Russell Henley, the 2025 FedExCup leader, ballooned to 73 and tumbled to 2 under, six back.
Key stat to track: par-3 scoring
Taylor played the par-3s in even par Friday—only eight players broke par on them. With projected hole locations tucked front-left on 6 and back-right on 11 for Round 3, the Canadian’s 71% GIR average on 200-yard-plus par-3s this season looms large.
Prediction market outlook
DraftKings Sportsbook moved Taylor from 14-1 overnight to 9-2 co-favorite with Riley, reflecting both his pedigree and weather forecast. The same book lists the winning score at 14 under; if trades hold, we’re looking at a one-shot derby come Sunday dusk.
Keep your refresh button ready—this Sony Open is trending toward a finish that could etch another maple leaf into PGA Tour history, and onlytrustedinfo.com will have the fastest analysis the moment the final putt drops.
