Black Monday is coming — and it’s not just about the NFL’s worst coaching decisions. It’s about the league’s future. With the Titans and Giants already moving on from Brian Callahan and Brian Daboll, we break down five key predictions for the most consequential day in the NFL calendar.
“Black Monday,” metaphorically the worst day on the NFL calendar, isn’t even 24 hours away. On a day when 18 teams are cleaning out their collective lockers going into an offseason they wish was still a few weeks away, several head coaches — along with their assistants and, by extension, families — will also be packing up ahead of a permanent change of address.
Two teams, the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants, decided weeks ago that they were headed in new directions in 2026, pulling the plugs on Brian Callahan and Brian Daboll, respectively, preemptively rather than let them unnecessarily twist in the wind before an inevitable axe fell. Will their dismissals serve as precursors for a larger HC bloodletting?
Before we find out officially, here are a few Black Monday predictions:
Black Monday will be moderate shade of gray
Since the start of the Super Bowl era — the 1966 season — six to seven head coaching openings, on average, materialize each year. As previously mentioned, two teams have already begun their searches. But if one were to set an over/under of, say, 3½ more firings in 2026, I’d be inclined to take the under. Several coaches this season have certainly fallen short of expectations, though quite a few have been victimized by circumstances largely beyond their control — whether they be injuries, weak rosters, poor quarterback play or maybe a combination thereof.
It’s also worth noting that very few organizations wait anymore to render a decision on Black Monday itself. Increasingly, teams like the Giants and Titans cut the cord when it’s clearly the proper course of action. Others will make an announcement in the hours after the regular-season finale rather than make a coach endure a process that need not last an additional day. And, sometimes, a club and/or coach need a cooling-off period before deciding whether a break-up is in order.
The guess here? Most pink slips will be issued by Sunday’s end — or maybe not until week’s end … just don’t expect all that many.
A coach in the playoffs won’t remain with his team in 2026
It’s not all that unusual to see a head man depart his post even after reaching the postseason — especially one who’s gotten into something of a good-but-not-great rut. This isn’t an indictment or suggestion any of the following men are in trouble, per se. But franchises sometimes wind up deciding to take a step back in order to (theoretically) eventually move forward — even if it means parting with a proven winner like Todd Bowles or Matt LaFleur or even John Harbaugh. Just saying — sometimes Black Monday arrives a week late.
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Mike McDaniel will stay in Miami
Widely identified as a man on the hot seat in the aftermath of the Dolphins’ disappointing 8-9 finish in 2024, could he somehow survive what’s shaping up as another seven- or eight-win campaign? In a break from their typical pattern under McDaniel, who’s wrapping up his fourth season at the helm, the Fins have nearly gotten back to break even after a 1-6 start — one that included the season-ending loss of dynamic WR Tyreek Hill. It’s also worth noting that McDaniel was retained at midseason when owner Stephen Ross and former GM Chris Grier mutually parted ways.
The Dolphins will obviously find a replacement for Grier (thanks, Troy Aikman). They’re also probably contractually stuck with QB Tua Tagovailoa, who’d had quite a bit of success under McDaniel before being benched late in the season, for at least another year. But even if the next GM decides to take a financial bath by cutting Tagovailoa, a move that would trigger something in the neighborhood of of nine-figure salary-cap pain, the team isn’t likely to find an immediate replacement who’s face-of-the-franchise-caliber. Given those options, it probably makes sense to retain McDaniel — whether he goes back to work with Tua or continues shepherding rookie Quinn Ewers, and kick the HC decision can down the road for a year. While it’s certainly ideal to have a new GM and coach enter the building together, philosophically aligned and such, it’s nearly as common for a new personnel boss to take the lay of the land for a year before deciding whether to stick with a program or fully reset it — recent examples of similar reboots transpiring in Nashville and Chicago.
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