The New Orleans Saints finished 6-11 in 2025, but their late-season surge with rookie QB Tyler Shough and a top-half defense under Brandon Staley suggests they’re closer to contention than their record indicates. With key draft picks and cap flexibility, the Saints are poised to build around their young core.
The Foundation Is Stronger Than the Record Shows
The Saints’ 6-11 record in 2025 doesn’t tell the full story. Under first-year head coach Kellen Moore, the offense showed flashes of potential, while Brandon Staley’s defense ranked in the top half of the league in DVOA. The late-season surge—including a 4-1 finish—proves this team is closer to contention than many realize.
Tyler Shough: The QB Answer They’ve Been Waiting For
Rookie QB Tyler Shough, a 26-year-old second-round pick from Louisville, emerged as the Saints’ future under center. Despite starting the season behind Spencer Rattler, Shough finished the year strong, ranking in the top 10 in EPA per play over the final five weeks. His development gives New Orleans the stability at QB they’ve lacked since Drew Brees retired.
Cap Challenges, But Flexibility Exists
The Saints are projected to be $24 million over the cap, but this is a familiar position for GM Mickey Loomis. With $65 million in dead money (led by Derek Carr’s $36.7 million), the Saints can restructure contracts—particularly Chase Young’s—to free up space. Extending Chris Olave’s $15.5 million fifth-year option could also provide relief.
Key Free Agents: Time to Turn the Page?
Veteran leaders like LB Demario Davis, DE Cameron Jordan, and TE Taysom Hill face uncertain futures. Davis, who played 98% of defensive snaps, remains elite in coverage, while Jordan posted his highest sack total since 2021. However, with the Saints’ defense ranking as the fourth-oldest in the league, letting them walk could signal a new era.
Draft Capital to Build Around Shough
With the No. 8 pick and seven total selections, the Saints can address critical needs:
- Cornerback: Alontae Taylor struggled, and Quincy Riley needs support.
- Wide Receiver: Chris Olave is a star, but the Saints need another reliable target.
- Offensive Line: Erik McCoy’s injuries highlight the need for depth.
Why the Saints Could Surprise in 2026
Shough’s late-season performance (14th in EPA per dropback from Week 9 on) suggests he’s capable of leading this offense. Pairing him with Olave—who ranked 12th in yards per route run—and adding playmakers in the draft could turn the Saints into a sleeper playoff team.
Fantasy Impact: Shough’s Supporting Cast Matters
Shough’s fantasy value hinges on the Saints’ offseason moves. If they invest in a true No. 2 receiver and a reliable running back, he could emerge as a mid-tier QB1. Olave, already a top-12 WR, would benefit from reduced defensive attention.
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