By Michael S. Derby
(Reuters) -Americans’ longer-term inflation outlook deteriorated in July even as households boosted their views on the current and future state of their respective financial situations, according to data released on Thursday by the New York Federal Reserve.
In its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, the regional Fed bank said the expected level of inflation five years from now stood at 2.9% in July, rising from 2.6% in the prior month and the highest reading since March. Meanwhile, expected inflation a year from now rose to 3.1% from 3% in June, while three-year-ahead expected inflation held steady at 3%.
The rise in longer-run expectations, coming in what had been a short period of ebbing expectations, may get the attention of policymakers who are trying to understand how President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff increases will affect the outlook.
The increases in import taxes are widely expected to push up inflation, with some data already showing that is happening. But there are big questions as to whether the increase will be a one-off impact or something more persistent.
Some U.S. central bank officials believe the hit will be a one-time event, and they favor an interest rate cut to offset rising risks to the job market. But most Fed officials worry there is a risk the long rollout and rapid shift in tariffs will create more lasting inflation, which is why they are more reluctant to cut rates.
Fed officials closely watch longer-run inflation expectations and have cited the relative stability of that data to buttress their confidence that currently elevated price pressures will eventually return to around the central bank’s 2% target.
In its report on Thursday, the New York Fed found that home prices were expected to rise 3% on a year-ahead basis, while expected future inflation levels across a range of other measures were mixed.
The report said labor market views also were mixed in July and the expectation that unemployment will be higher a year from now hit its lowest level since January.
Households in July said credit is harder to get but will be easier to obtain a year from now. Survey respondents also said their current and expected financial situations improved in July compared to June.
(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Paul Simao)
