As the NBA regular season nears its end, the chase for the Larry O’Brien Trophy is taking shape. The Eastern Conference features a balanced trio of the Knicks, Cavaliers, and Celtics, while the West is led by the Thunder but challenged by the Spurs and Nuggets. Injuries, trades, and breakout performances will determine who hoists the trophy.
The NBA’s regular season is winding down with about five weeks remaining, and the contenders for the Larry O’Brien Trophy are crystallizing. Over the past seven seasons, we’ve seen seven different champions—a trend that raises a critical question: will a new dynasty emerge, or will the Thunder repeat? Based on current form, roster construction, and star power, here’s a breakdown of the three most likely teams from each conference to reach the Finals, with an eye on why they’re built for April and May.
Eastern Conference: A Balanced Battle of Grit and Star Power
New York Knicks
The Knicks are the ultimate proof that regular-season records don’t always dictate playoff success. Last season, they weren’t expected to reach the Eastern Conference finals, but they authored a spectacular playoff run, including a six-game series win over the Pistons. This year, they sit third in the East at 41-23, and they’ve added Jose Alvarado, a player whose scrappy, physical style has been highlighted by NY Post Sports. With Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart all motivated by last season’s penultimate-round exit to the Pacers, the Knicks are engineered for the grind of a seven-game series. Their toughness and defensive versatility could allow them to upset any top seed.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are on a mission to bring Cleveland its first championship since 2016. After a first-round fold against the Pacers last postseason—where Donovan Mitchell battled an ankle injury—they made a blockbuster move, trading Darius Garland for James Harden, a deal reported by AOL Sports. This pairs Harden’s elite playmaking with Mitchell’s scoring prowess, creating a backcourt that can dissect any defense. The Cavs have the talent; the question is whether they can stay healthy and coalesce under playoff pressure.
Boston Celtics
Remember the preseason predictions that the Celtics would tank after Jayson Tatum’s Achilles injury and the departures of Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet? Those were obliterated by Jaylen Brown’s MVP-caliber season, which has propelled Boston to a 42-21 record and second place in the East. LeBron James has publicly questioned why Brown isn’t an MVP front-runner. Then, Tatum returned against the Mavericks, adding another layer to an already deep roster. The Celtics are the East’s biggest surprise, blending youth, experience, and two-way excellence.
Honorable Mention: Detroit Pistons
Where did the Pistons come from? After a competitive first-round series against the Knicks last year, they’ve surged to the East’s best record at 45-16, with Cade Cunningham emerging as an MVP candidate. Their defensive identity and young core have shocked the league, but the true test is whether this regular-season dominance translates to playoff success—a question that has fans buzzing about their potential as a giant-killer.
Western Conference: Thunder’s Reign Under Siege
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder entered the season as the clear favorites to repeat as champions, and they backed it up with a historic 24-1 start despite Jalen Williams playing only six games. They hold the NBA’s best record at 49-15, but winning back-to-back titles is one of the hardest feats in sports. A key issue: teams have cracked the code on OKC’s top-rated defense, most notably the Spurs. The Thunder’s depth and chemistry remain elite, but they must avoid the complacency that often befalls the league’s best regular-season teams.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs’ transformation has been nothing short of stunning. From missing the playoffs last season to genuine contenders, all because Victor Wembanyama has fully unleashed his potential. The 22-year-old, 7-foot-5 phenom has led a 11-game winning streak and recently fueled a 25-point comeback against the Clippers, calling the 116-112 victory “one of the best games I’ve been a part of in my career.” Wembanyama’s two-way impact—shot-blocking, scoring, and playmaking—is rewriting the rules. But are the Spurs ready to win multiple best-of-seven series on the biggest stage? Their lack of playoff experience is the only question mark, but they’re peaking at the perfect time.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are the West’s seasoned powerhouse, having reached the summit in 2023 and pushing the Thunder to seven games in last year’s second round. Nikola Jokic, back from a left knee hyperextension that sidelined him for 16 games, is arguably the world’s best player. However, their supporting cast is frayed: Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson have both missed extensive time with hamstring injuries. For Denver to advance deep, they need Gordon’s two-way impact and Watson’s perimeter defense healthy and effective. Without them, Jokic’s brilliance might not be enough.
Honorable Mention: Minnesota Timberwolves
Despite underperforming in the regular season, the Timberwolves are a terrifying dark horse. They’ve reached the Western Conference finals two years running, sparked by Anthony Edwards’ superstar ascension and Rudy Gobert’s defensive anchor. Last postseason, Gobert’s 27-point, 24-reboard performance against the Lakers and Edwards’ Jordan-esque highlights proved they can flip the switch. If they recapture that playoff intensity, a deep run is very possible.
What sets this playoff race apart is the convergence of narratives: the Knicks’ revenge tour, the Cavaliers’ high-stakes gamble, the Celtics’ defiance of preseason doubt, the Thunder’s repeat bid, the Spurs’ meteoric rise, and the Nuggets’ pursuit of another title. Fans are debating everything—Can Wembanyama outduel Jokic in a seven-game series? Will Harden’s hunger propel the Cavs? Are the Pistons’ 45 wins a fluke or a new era? These questions will be answered in the coming weeks, but one thing is certain: the path to the Finals is wider open than it’s been in years.
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