From rising rookies to established talents poised for a leap, the NBA is constantly churning out stars. This season, a select group of players is ready to ignite the league, transforming their potential into undeniable impact, reshaping team dynamics, and capturing the attention of fans and executives alike.
Every NBA season offers the thrilling suspense of watching potential cash in, transforming solid players into must-watch attractions almost overnight. While some players make a significant leap, the term “breakout” demands a precise definition. It’s not merely a career-high scoring average; it signifies a profound shift in a player’s overall impact, recognition, and often, their role within a team’s success. As the 2025-26 season approaches, several athletes stand on the precipice of such a transformative year, building on past promises and new opportunities.
Defining the Breakout Moment
The concept of a “breakout” has been frequently misused, as a player simply logging more minutes or scoring more points doesn’t always qualify. A true breakout involves a player elevating their game to a new tier of influence and recognition, often becoming an All-Star or an All-NBA caliber performer. For example, Tyrese Haliburton‘s leap to average over 20 points and 10 assists per game solidified his breakout status, placing him among the league’s elite playmakers. This season, players are positioned for similar progress, often due to new coaching systems, expanded roles, or a newfound sense of urgency.
The Contenders: Top Breakout Candidates for the Coming Season
Basketball executives and analysts consistently identify a core group of players primed for a significant leap. A HoopsHype poll of 25 NBA executives highlighted several key candidates, showcasing the league’s collective anticipation for these young talents to truly emerge. While many were mentioned, a few names consistently rise to the top of the discussion, projecting a future filled with star power.
Victor Wembanyama: Beyond Rookie Sensation to MVP Contender
It might seem unfair to label Victor Wembanyama a “breakout candidate” given his unprecedented rookie year, but he is undeniably poised for another significant leap. As he enters his third season, the San Antonio Spurs have strategically reshaped their offense, shifting him closer to the paint to maximize his strengths. This adjustment encourages more aggressive attacks, sealing defenders inside, and challenging his growing strength against heavier contact.
The defensive end is where Wembanyama continues to be a league-altering force. With 176 blocks in just 46 games last season, he cemented his status as the NBA’s most intimidating presence. Now stronger and more assertive near the rim, Year 3 could definitively launch him into the MVP conversation, according to NBA.com statistics.
Alperen Şengün: The Rockets’ Playmaking Dynamo
While Alperen Şengün has already shown flashes of brilliance, entering his prime suggests another level of performance is imminent. The Houston Rockets’ promising young big man has refined his playmaking and interior touch. His elite vision for a center, combined with the floor-spacing presence of teammates like Kevin Durant, creates ample opportunities for him to operate. Reigning NBA MVP Nikola Jokic himself lauded Şengün’s talent, stating, “The man is talented. He can pass the ball, post up, has the touch and is a good finisher around the rim. I think they should play through him more.” This high praise from a fellow dominant center underscores Şengün’s burgeoning influence.
The Rockets’ offense is increasingly designed to run through him, and if his free-throw and three-point percentages continue to improve, the whispers of MVP contention will become much louder. His ability to combine creativity with efficiency makes him a unique and integral piece for Houston’s future.
Cade Cunningham: The Former No. 1 Pick’s Resurgence
After being limited to just 12 games in a previous season, Cade Cunningham is ready to fulfill the promise of a former number-one overall pick. Averaging nearly 20 points in that short span, his scoring prowess has never been in doubt. With new leadership in Detroit and coach Monty Williams‘ system, fans are optimistic. Cunningham’s size and shooting ability make him a nightmare for defenses, and his backcourt pairing with Jaden Ivey has the potential to be truly prolific. Expect at the very least an All-Star selection, signaling a massive return to form and beyond.
Tyrese Maxey: Poised for All-NBA Under Nick Nurse
While Tyrese Maxey has already experienced a breakout year, his trajectory points towards an even greater leap, largely thanks to coach Nick Nurse. Nurse, known for helping players like Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet reach All-Star status, implements a system that allows players to excel at their strengths. Maxey thrives in a fast-paced game, playing ahead of the defense. With the looming departure of James Harden, Nurse will undoubtedly empower Maxey to shoulder a larger offensive load, pushing him towards All-NBA numbers. This strategic shift and coaching pedigree provide a clear path for Maxey to elevate his game even further, as discussed by experts at ESPN when analyzing Nurse’s impact on player development.
Trey Murphy III: The Pelicans’ Crucial Two-Way Wing
When Trey Murphy III returned from injury, the New Orleans Pelicans’ spacing and pace visibly improved. The team is now betting on his continued development to complement Zion Williamson‘s interior dominance. Murphy has expanded his game beyond just catch-and-shoot threes, attacking closeouts, absorbing contact, and finishing through traffic. His growth in off-ball movement should establish him as one of the league’s most efficient wings. Playing significantly more minutes and hitting 42% from beyond the arc in a previous season, he’s proven to be an invaluable piece of the rotation with the size and athleticism to impact the defensive end as well.
Cason Wallace: The Thunder’s Rising Two-Way Threat
Cason Wallace has already secured a key role for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Known as a lockdown defender and a reliable shooter, his next step involves asserting himself more offensively. The Thunder envision more potential in his creation, and with increased workload due to veteran adjustments, Wallace has the opportunity to shine. His control and shot selection are already mature, and if he combines this with greater offensive aggression without sacrificing efficiency, he could join the league’s elite group of two-way guards.
Jabari Smith Jr.: Houston’s X-Factor
While Houston has strategically gathered stars around him, Jabari Smith Jr. has been quietly refining his game. This season, that patience is poised to pay off significantly. He has become more aggressive in attacking mismatches and has developed into a dependable switch defender. Playing alongside talents like Alperen Şengün and Kevin Durant has forced him to diversify his offensive repertoire. His combination of length, improved shooting, and enhanced composure could make him the ultimate X-factor, elevating the Rockets from a promising team to a truly dangerous contender.
Shaedon Sharpe: Unlocking Untapped Potential in Portland
Few players in the league possess as much untapped potential as Shaedon Sharpe. He has consciously added patience to his explosive athleticism, learning to control the pace of the game rather than relying solely on bursts. This shift has resulted in smoother decision-making and better efficiency on the court. The Portland Trail Blazers’ offense will increasingly lean on Sharpe to create, and his burgeoning mix of shot creation and rim pressure is finally showcasing why he was once considered a top-tier prospect. Maintaining a balance between aggressive attacking and intelligent facilitating will be key to completing the leap fans have eagerly awaited.
Other Key Breakout Contenders to Watch
Beyond these prominent names, several other players are generating buzz for potential breakout seasons:
- Ausar Thompson (Detroit Pistons): Despite a blood clot setback last year, Thompson is set for a strong comeback. His dynamic perimeter defense and improved offensive confidence, coupled with Detroit’s enhanced spacing, position him for All-Defensive team recognition and a significant energy boost for the Pistons.
- Andrew Nembhard (Indiana Pacers): With Tyrese Haliburton’s potential absences, Nembhard has the green light to lead the offense. His ability to balance playmaking and scoring, particularly if his three-point shooting remains consistent, could establish him as one of the East’s most underrated guards.
- Cam Johnson (Denver Nuggets): Johnson’s understated arrival in Denver offers a seamless fit with Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray. His knack for running lanes, relocating for threes, and understanding spacing will be vital for Denver’s depth. Expect his shooting numbers to soar with the high-quality looks generated by Jokić.
- Deuce McBride (New York Knicks): McBride’s intensity and decision-making could finally earn him recognition as a breakout sixth man, potentially even closing games. Mike Brown’s system, with its faster tempo and better spacing, provides a platform to highlight his growing offensive game, adding versatility to his renowned hustle and defense.
- Bol Bol (Phoenix Suns): The big man is finally in a situation to display his freakish athleticism. With a skillset often compared to Kevin Durant, who is now his teammate, Bol’s unique attributes fill a critical need for depth, size, and spacing in Phoenix. Playing in coach Frank Vogel’s big-man-friendly system, he could surprise many, perhaps even emerging as a preseason favorite for Most Improved Player.
Looking Ahead: The Impact of New Systems and Expanded Roles
The common thread among many of these breakout candidates is the strategic alignment of their talents with new coaching philosophies or expanded responsibilities. Whether it’s a new system designed to accentuate their strengths, the departure of a star opening up more usage, or simply another year of development and added confidence, these players are uniquely situated to make significant progress. Their individual successes will not only define their careers but also directly influence the competitive landscape of the NBA in the coming seasons.
