The Oklahoma City Thunder are poised to make history, entering the 2025-26 NBA season as the heavy favorites to secure back-to-back championships, a feat not accomplished since the Golden State Warriors in 2017-18. Despite the league’s evolving landscape with new CBA restrictions designed to curb dynasties, the Thunder’s stable core, led by reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, positions them at the top of BetMGM’s odds, with the retooled Denver Nuggets looming as their primary Western Conference challenger.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are set to hoist their championship banner, marking the start of a 2025-26 NBA season laden with immense expectations. After a dominant 68-win regular season culminating in a title, the Thunder find themselves in a unique position: favored to repeat, despite a league environment increasingly hostile to the formation of dynasties. This season represents a fascinating test of their young core against the league’s toughest competition.
Thunder Favored to Repeat
The Oklahoma City Thunder (+240) have maintained their opening odds as the clear frontrunners at BetMGM, a testament to their exceptional blend of star power, depth, and postseason experience. Last season, they proved to be a league juggernaut, ranking third in offensive rating and first in defensive rating. This remarkable balance was achieved with an incredibly young roster, suggesting even more room for growth and development.
At the heart of their success is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who enters the season as a co-favorite for the MVP award alongside Denver’s Nikola Jokic (+275). Gilgeous-Alexander’s previous MVP campaign was officially recognized by the league, solidifying his status as one of basketball’s elite talents. Alongside him, All-Star wing Jalen Williams and two-way big man Chet Holmgren form one of the league’s most formidable trios. With a deep and talented supporting cast largely intact, Oklahoma City appears well-positioned for a repeat, provided they can avoid the injury woes that derailed other contenders in the past.
The Shifting Sands of the NBA: CBA’s Impact
The pursuit of back-to-back titles is particularly noteworthy given the significant changes to the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). Adjustments, including the implementation of the second apron to the salary cap in 2024, have fundamentally reshaped how championship rosters are constructed. These rules, designed to limit excessive spending and promote competitive balance, make building and maintaining “super teams” and long-term dynasties increasingly challenging, as detailed by explanations of the updated Collective Bargaining Agreement on NBA.com. The Thunder’s ability to thrive under these new constraints speaks volumes about their roster’s organic development and front office strategy.
Nuggets: The West’s Top Challenger
Standing directly in Oklahoma City’s path are Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets (+550). Their intense seven-game series in last season’s Western Conference Semifinals showcased Denver’s resilience. The Nuggets were proactive in the offseason, making significant changes to bolster their roster. Head coach Michael Malone and general manager Calvin Booth were dismissed on the eve of the playoffs, signaling a new direction.
The roster underwent a significant overhaul, starting with the trade of talented wing Michael Porter Jr. to the Nets for Cameron Johnson, a move aimed at upgrading defensive capabilities. This also freed up cap space to strengthen a previously weak bench. The Nuggets then signed veterans Tim Hardaway Jr. and fan-favorite Bruce Brown (from their 2023 title run) to enhance their perimeter rotation. The acquisition of backup center Jonas Valanciunas further ensures productivity when Jokic is off the floor. Under new head coach David Adelman, the Nuggets remain serious contenders as long as Jokic maintains his consistent MVP-level performance.
Eastern Conference Contenders and Their Challenges
Cavaliers Lead the Pack
The Cleveland Cavaliers (+750) emerge as the top contender in the Eastern Conference. After securing the top seed last season, Cleveland is well-positioned for another strong playoff run, partly due to significant injuries impacting key rivals. The Cavaliers return all their core pieces, with the exception of Sixth Man of the Year candidate Ty Jerome.
A major key to Cleveland’s potential will be the continued growth of big man Evan Mobley, who earned All-NBA Second Team and Defensive Player of the Year honors last season. His untapped potential to expand his perimeter game could elevate their ceiling. The dynamic backcourt of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland (recovering from offseason toe surgery) remains potent offensively, though defensive questions linger due to their size. Improving their eighth-place defensive rating from last season will be crucial, with a full season of wing De’Andre Hunter expected to contribute significantly.
Knicks Aim High After Coaching Change
The New York Knicks are next at +900, having made a significant offseason move by replacing head coach Tom Thibodeau with Mike Brown. Their star-studded rotation largely remains, with Jalen Brunson leading as one of the league’s top floor generals, supported by a strong core including Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, and OG Anunoby.
New York’s second unit is also set for improvement with the additions of forward Guerschon Yabusele and veteran guard Jordan Clarkson. While the Knicks rode the league’s fifth-best offensive rating to a surprising Conference Semifinals win over the Celtics last season, their 13th-place defensive rating limited their title aspirations. Strengthening their defense, especially with Brunson and Towns being subpar on that end, will be paramount for their championship push as their core veterans continue to age.
Injuries Decimate Eastern Hopefuls
The Eastern Conference landscape has been dramatically reshaped by significant injuries. Odds for both the Indiana Pacers (+10000) and Boston Celtics (+6000), the two most recent Eastern Conference champions, plummeted after season-ending injuries to their star players. Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton and Boston’s Jayson Tatum are both expected to miss the entire season due to Achilles injuries, opening the door for other contenders.
A Loaded Western Conference Dominates Second Tier
Beyond the top four favorites, the Western Conference continues to assert its dominance, accounting for five of the next six teams in the title odds.
Rising Wolves and Rockets
With back-to-back appearances in the Conference Finals, the Minnesota Timberwolves (+1300) are looking to take another leap. A potential ascent of superstar guard Anthony Edwards into MVP contention could propel Minnesota to the next level. Largely maintaining their core, the Timberwolves hope that internal growth and a second full season with Edwards and Julius Randle will evolve them into true title contenders.
The acquisition of Kevin Durant has elevated the young Houston Rockets (+1400) into serious players. Durant provides Houston with a much-needed go-to scorer in the half-court, an area they struggled in during their playoff loss to Golden State. However, losing point guard Fred VanVleet for the season with a torn ACL has impacted their odds, thrusting the backcourt chemistry of Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard into the spotlight. Durant’s ability to stay healthy for a deep playoff run will also be crucial.
Lakers’ Superstar Duo and Clippers’ Veteran Bet
The ceiling for the Los Angeles Lakers (+1600) remains difficult to gauge after only half a season of LeBron James teaming with Luka Dončić. Their superstar duo was surprisingly bounced in five games by Minnesota in the first round. Dončić dedicated his offseason to overhauling his physique, while James begins the season sidelined with sciatica. The question remains whether this formidable duo has enough surrounding talent to navigate a loaded conference once James returns to full health.
The Los Angeles Clippers (+1800) made a flurry of offseason moves, bringing in established names like Chris Paul, Bradley Beal, John Collins, and Brook Lopez, which boosted their title odds from +3500. However, concerns persist regarding their aging roster and the health of key stars like Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. While their ability to go 11-deep in the rotation could help during the regular season, keeping their stars on the floor will be vital for a deep playoff run.
Orlando and Golden State: Dark Horses?
The Orlando Magic (+1800) are the Eastern Conference’s third-highest team in title odds, tied for eighth overall, highlighting the disparity between conferences. Trading four future first-round picks for guard Desmond Bane was a bold, win-now move. Finishing .500 and sixth in the East last year, Orlando’s elite defense (second in defensive rating) needs significant offensive improvement from its 27th-ranked unit to ascend into true contention.
The Golden State Warriors (+2500) hope the mid-season acquisition of Jimmy Butler last season translates into greater regular-season consistency. After the trade, the Warriors boasted the NBA’s best defense and stunned the No. 2 seed Rockets in the first round. Butler’s isolation offense greatly complemented Steph Curry’s spacing, while his and Draymond Green’s defensive versatility created a formidable presence. A full season of Golden State’s revitalized core presents a fascinating challenge in the crowded Western Conference.
Betting Market Insights
While the Oklahoma City Thunder are the favorites, the betting market reveals diverse opinions. Despite their +240 odds at BetMGM, Oklahoma City accounts for only 12.1% of the total money wagered on this season’s NBA champion, ranking them third in that metric. The Denver Nuggets have seen the most significant movement, shifting from +1600 to +550, and drawing 17.5% of the money. The Los Angeles Lakers are second with 15.9% of the money, though their odds lengthened slightly from +1500 to +1600.
BetMGM trading strategy manager Halvor Egeland noted, “The star-studded Lakers, Warriors, Nuggets and Mavericks are all popular picks to win the NBA Championship this year. While the Thunder are receiving support from bettors to go back to back, the team’s low odds make them a good outcome for the sportsbook.” The biggest liability for the book to open the season are the Golden State Warriors, whose odds shortened from +3000 to +2500 with 9.0% of the money backing them. The Dallas Mavericks also remain a popular choice, drawing 9.3% at +3500.
2025-26 NBA Title Odds*
- Oklahoma City Thunder (Opening: +240, Current: +240)
- Denver Nuggets (Opening: +1600, Current: +550)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (Opening: +700, Current: +750)
- New York Knicks (Opening: +700, Current: +900)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (Opening: +1400, Current: +1300)
- Houston Rockets (Opening: +800, Current: +1400)
- Los Angeles Lakers (Opening: +1500, Current: +1600)
- Los Angeles Clippers (Opening: +2500, Current: +1800)
- Orlando Magic (Opening: +1800, Current: +1800)
- Golden State Warriors (Opening: +3000, Current: +2500)
- Detroit Pistons (Opening: +6600, Current: +3300)
- Dallas Mavericks (Opening: +3500, Current: +3500)
- Philadelphia 76ers (Opening: +3500, Current: +4000)
- Atlanta Hawks (Opening: +25000, Current: +4000)
- Milwaukee Bucks (Opening: +10000, Current: +5500)
- Boston Celtics (Opening: +1600, Current: +6000)
- San Antonio Spurs (Opening: +2500, Current: +6600)
- Indiana Pacers (Opening: +6600, Current: +10000)
- Toronto Raptors (Opening: +20000, Current: +10000)
- Memphis Grizzlies (Opening: +15000, Current: +12500)
- Miami Heat (Opening: +25000, Current: +20000)
- New Orleans Pelicans (Opening: +25000, Current: +30000)
- Phoenix Suns (Opening: +30000, Current: +50000)
- Sacramento Kings (Opening: +30000, Current: +50000)
- Chicago Bulls (Opening: +30000, Current: +50000)
- Portland Trail Blazers (Opening: +50000, Current: +50000)
- Utah Jazz (Opening: +100000, Current: +100000)
- Charlotte Hornets (Opening: +50000, Current: +100000)
- Brooklyn Nets (Opening: +50000, Current: +100000)
- Washington Wizards (Opening: +100000, Current: +100000)
*BetMGM
The Western Conference‘s depth is further underscored by the odds to win the conference, with the Thunder leading at +170. They are followed by the Nuggets (+375), Minnesota Timberwolves (+700), and a cluster of teams including the Lakers, Rockets, and Clippers, each at +900.
Conversely, the Eastern Conference is perceived as far more open, especially with the critical injuries sidelining Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics and Tyrese Haliburton of the Indiana Pacers. The Cleveland Cavaliers are the favorite at +220, with the New York Knicks close behind at +250. The Orlando Magic hold the third-shortest odds at +550, while the Atlanta Hawks are at +900.
