The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has announced it will publish September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on October 24, a vital move to ensure the timely calculation of the 2026 Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA). This decision comes despite an ongoing government shutdown, highlighting the critical importance of this particular inflation data for over 72.5 million beneficiaries. While the CPI report will proceed, the shutdown continues to impact the collection and release of other key economic indicators, raising concerns about data quality in the coming months.
In a crucial development amidst a government shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has confirmed it will release September’s consumer inflation report on October 24. This specific data point, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, is not just another economic indicator; it’s the lifeline for millions of Americans who rely on Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits.
The decision to publish the report, originally slated for October 15, is a direct response to the need to assist the Social Security Administration (SSA) in determining the annual Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2026. This adjustment is essential to help beneficiaries keep pace with inflation, ensuring their payments retain purchasing power.
The Immediate Impact: Ensuring Timely Benefits for Millions
The government shutdown, which commenced on October 1 after funding lapsed, brought a halt to the collection, processing, and publishing of most official economic data. This delayed the release of several key reports, including September’s closely watched employment report. However, the BLS made an exception for the CPI to fulfill a statutory obligation.
In a statement, the BLS emphasized, “This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits.” The COLA announcement, typically a highly anticipated event each October, directly follows the release of the September CPI report.
For 2026, the SSA utilizes the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers data from the third quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2025. This ensures that the annual adjustment is based on recent inflation trends, supporting older Americans, individuals with disabilities, and certain widows, widowers, and children who depend on these payments.
In 2025, more than 72.5 million Social Security and SSI beneficiaries received a 2.5% COLA increase. Looking ahead to 2026, the Senior Citizens League, a prominent seniors’ advocacy group, projected a 2.7% COLA raise last month. Such an increase would elevate the average monthly benefit for retirees by $54, from $2,008 to $2,062, as reported by Reuters.
Broader Economic Implications and Data Quality Concerns
Beyond the immediate relief for Social Security recipients, the rescheduled CPI report holds significance for other economic stakeholders. It will be published just in time for the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on October 28-29. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to implement another 25 basis points interest rate cut at this meeting, continuing its policy easing that began last month to aid the labor market. Investors, too, are eager for an end to the official economic data blackout.
However, the government shutdown has cast a shadow over the quality of upcoming economic data. Concerns are mounting specifically over the integrity of October’s CPI report, with potential ripple effects into November and December, given the suspension of data collection. Consumer prices are collected throughout the month, and economists warn that missing a third of October’s data could introduce significant volatility.
Economist Veronica Clark of Citigroup explained that if prices rise on average, collecting data only at the end of October could result in a higher average than if prices were gathered throughout the entire month. This, she notes, implies a larger change relative to average September prices but could also mean prices at the end of October are more similar to average prices in November, implying a smaller change for November, as highlighted in a CNN Business report covering the shutdown’s impact.
This situation mirrors the 2013 government shutdown, during which approximately 75% of the CPI data for October was collected. Experts anticipate a similar scenario for this year’s October report. Compounding these challenges, the BLS is already grappling with resource constraints stemming from budget and staffing cuts, which have previously led to suspended data collection for certain portions of the CPI basket in various areas nationwide.
The Long Wait for “Clean” Data
Economists have also pointed out that the BLS collects some prices every other month, a practice that could further skew the accuracy of upcoming CPI reports. Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, offered a cautious outlook: “However, assuming that November data are collected, the December price levels in the CPI would be no less accurate than they usually are. Still, it will be a long wait for clean CPI data. The December CPI will not be released until mid-January.”
The distortions in the CPI data are also expected to affect the quality of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which the Federal Reserve closely monitors for its 2% inflation target. Despite these challenges, there’s a unique silver lining for the employment report.
A Glimmer of Hope for Employment Data
While the CPI faces quality concerns, economists believe the suspension of data collection may not harm the employment report; it could even improve the quality of nonfarm payroll estimates. The employment report has historically suffered from low response rates, contributing to significant downward revisions of previously published payroll numbers.
Gapen noted that “the payroll data reflect employment in the pay period that includes the 12th of the month, and so they might seem to be affected by the current shutdown, which is now approaching that time.” However, establishments involved in the survey will retain their employment information for that period, allowing the BLS to collect and tabulate it later, ensuring the underlying employment data remains intact.
The Community’s Perspective and What Lies Ahead
For the millions of households relying on Social Security payments, the release of the September CPI report is a moment of critical importance. The stability and predictability of these benefits are paramount, especially for vulnerable populations such as retirees and the disabled. While the immediate hurdle of the COLA calculation seems to be cleared, the broader implications of the government shutdown on economic data remain a significant concern.
The episode underscores the delicate balance between government operations and essential economic functions. As policymakers grapple with funding issues, the reliability of data—which underpins crucial decisions for individuals, businesses, and central banks—is brought into sharp focus. The coming months will be a test of resilience for economic data collection and the analytical community’s ability to interpret it accurately amidst ongoing disruptions.
