The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its definitive 2025-2026 winter forecast, signaling a clear transition into a La Niña pattern. This critical climate shift is poised to bring distinctive weather conditions across the United States, with projections for a warmer and drier winter in the southern states and a cooler, wetter season across much of the North. Understanding these patterns is key to preparing for the months ahead.
The latest seasonal outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), meticulously crafted by its Climate Prediction Center, offers a crucial glimpse into the upcoming 2025-2026 winter months. Released on October 16, 2025, this forecast signals a definitive shift into a La Niña pattern, a significant phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle that traditionally dictates weather across North America.
For the contiguous U.S., the outlook anticipates a winter marked by regional contrasts: generally warmer-than-average temperatures across a broad swath of the country, but with distinct precipitation differences. Southern states are expected to experience a drier and warmer winter, while northern regions are forecasted for cooler and wetter conditions.
Deciphering La Niña: The Climate’s Cooler Phase
To fully grasp the implications of NOAA’s winter forecast, it’s essential to understand La Niña itself. La Niña is the “cooler phase” of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by fluctuating sea surface temperatures and precipitation levels across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This cycle alternates between three phases: El Niño (warm phase), La Niña (cold phase), and a “neutral” phase.
NOAA officially confirmed the shift from a neutral phase to La Niña earlier in October 2025, following observed drops in sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. This transition profoundly influences global weather, especially in North America.
How La Niña Shapes North American Winters
Historically, La Niña episodes are associated with specific changes in atmospheric flow over the eastern North Pacific and North America. As detailed by the Climate Prediction Center, key characteristics include:
- An amplification of the climatological mean wave pattern, increasing meridional flow across the continent.
- Increased blocking activity in the high latitudes of the eastern North Pacific.
- A highly variable strength of the jet stream, with its mean position entering North America in the northwestern United States and southwestern Canada.
These atmospheric shifts typically result in increased storminess, precipitation, and a higher frequency of significant cold-air outbreaks across large portions of central North America. Conversely, the southern states often experience less storminess and precipitation. The forecast for 2025-2026 aligns directly with these characteristic La Niña impacts.
The 2025-2026 Winter Forecast in Detail
For the upcoming winter stretching from December 2025 through February 2026, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center offers specific regional outlooks for both temperatures and precipitation across the U.S.
Temperature Projections
The forecast anticipates warmer-than-average temperatures for much of the contiguous U.S. This broad warming trend is consistent with global climate patterns, even within the context of a La Niña event which typically brings cooler air to the North. The southern tier of the country, however, is expected to see the most significant departure with notably warmer conditions. For a comprehensive overview, readers can consult the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center directly for detailed maps.
Precipitation Outlook
The precipitation forecast reveals distinct regional patterns:
- Pacific Northwest and Northern California: Above-normal overall precipitation is predicted, consistent with the characteristic effects of La Niña, which often brings flooding rains to this region.
- Northern Rockies, Great Plains, and Western Great Lakes: These areas are also expected to receive above-average precipitation.
- Southwest, Southern Texas, and Southeast: Conversely, the southern half of the country is forecasted for drier-than-normal conditions, an anticipated outcome of a La Niña winter.
While NOAA’s winter outlook does not offer specific snowfall predictions, the forecast for above-normal precipitation in northern and western regions suggests a higher potential for significant snow events in those areas, particularly in mountainous terrain.
Forecasting Beyond the Contiguous U.S.
The NOAA forecast also extends to non-contiguous parts of the U.S., with specific outlooks for Alaska. Northwestern Alaska is expected to experience warmer-than-usual winter months, while the state’s panhandle is predicted to be cooler than normal. Precipitation forecasts for Alaska mirror these divisions, with above-average precipitation in western parts and below-average precipitation in the panhandle area. A separate forecast outlook for Alaska is regularly updated by the Climate Prediction Center.
The Science Behind the Outlooks
The comprehensive nature of NOAA’s winter outlooks is a testament to the rigorous scientific processes undertaken by the Climate Prediction Center. Climate scientists base these future outlooks on a combination of factors, including current patterns in the ocean and atmosphere. They meticulously examine projections from both climate and weather models, factoring in recent trends and checking historical records to understand how much precipitation fell during similar patterns in the past. This multi-faceted approach ensures the most accurate and reliable forecasts possible.
For those interested in the broader phenomenon, CBS News provides an excellent resource exploring the phenomenon of La Niña and its counterpart, El Niño, offering deeper insights into how these cycles affect global temperatures and weather patterns.
Looking Ahead: Duration and Implications
Forecasters anticipate that the current La Niña pattern will persist through February 2026, eventually transitioning back to the neutral phase of the ENSO cycle as the spring season commences. This extended presence means communities across the U.S. should prepare for the forecasted conditions to endure for the entire traditional winter period.
The implications of this La Niña winter are far-reaching. Drier conditions in the South could exacerbate existing droughts, impacting agriculture and increasing wildfire risk, which has already been a concern in many areas as seen by maps showing drought and fire conditions in northeast states earlier. Conversely, increased precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and northern states could lead to enhanced snowpacks, beneficial for water resources but also raising concerns for localized flooding.
Being prepared and understanding these large-scale climate patterns is crucial for individuals, communities, and industries alike. NOAA’s ongoing monitoring and forecasts provide invaluable information for planning and resilience against the dynamic forces of nature.
