Nancy Pelosi’s investment portfolio, primarily managed by her husband Paul Pelosi, has consistently outperformed the S&P 500, delivering a staggering 816% return over the past decade. Far from a simple political figure, Pelosi’s prescient timing on major tech and AI stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, and the burgeoning Tempus AI offers valuable insights for long-term investors navigating volatile markets.
The Numbers Don’t Lie: Pelosi’s Unrivaled Market Performance
When discussing market legends, names like Warren Buffett often come to mind. However, a closer look at congressional trading disclosures reveals an investor whose cumulative returns over the past decade have not only dwarfed the S&P 500 but also significantly outpaced the Oracle of Omaha himself. California Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi, through a portfolio largely managed by her husband, Paul Pelosi, has generated an astonishing 816% return on her investments over the last ten years, beating the S&P 500 by a remarkable 559 percentage points.
To put this into perspective, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B) managed a 282% cumulative return during the same period. Pelosi’s performance isn’t a one-off anomaly; in 2023, her portfolio returned an impressive 65% compared to the S&P 500‘s 24%. She also continued this trend in 2024, delivering over 70% returns while the broader market saw gains of approximately 25%.
Despite these stellar results, Pelosi ranked 10th among her congressional peers in 2024. Lawmakers like Rep. David Rouzer (R-NC) led the pack with 149% returns, followed by Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) at 142.3% and Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) with 123.8% returns. This elite group demonstrates a pattern of market-beating performance among politicians, often drawing scrutiny.
For those interested in tracking and potentially mirroring these trades, the platform Unusual Whales has gained significant attention. They even offer exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as the Unusual Whales Subversive Democratic Trading ETF (NYSEARCA: NANC) and the Unusual Whales Subversive Republican Trading ETF (NYSEARCA: KRUZ), named after prominent trading politicians, allowing investors to follow specific party trades. You can explore their data and research at Unusual Whales.
A Closer Look at Pelosi’s Signature Trades
The Pelosi portfolio’s success often stems from strategic call option purchases and timely exercises. In 2023, for instance, Paul Pelosi exercised 50 call options to acquire 5,000 shares of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) at $80 per share and another 50 call options for 5,000 shares of Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) at $180 per share. These options were initially purchased in 2022, showcasing a forward-looking strategy that capitalized on the subsequent surge in tech valuations.
The concept of “in-the-money” call options is central to this strategy. These are options with a strike price lower than the current share price, allowing investors to limit upfront costs and risk while still profiting from upward movements. This mechanism has been a recurring theme in the Pelosi portfolio’s strong performance.
Beyond buying, the portfolio has also demonstrated “prescient timing” in its sales. Reports indicate that 5,000 shares of Microsoft were sold in 2024 just prior to the Federal Trade Commission launching an antitrust investigation into the tech giant. Similarly, 2,000 shares of Visa (NYSE: V) were sold before the Justice Department initiated a lawsuit against the payments processor. While politicians deny using insider information, such well-timed transactions frequently spark public debate and calls for stricter trading regulations among elected officials. For more on these controversial trades, see reporting from The Washington Times.
The AI and Cybersecurity Edge: Nvidia and Palo Alto Networks
Pelosi’s long-term conviction in high-growth sectors is evident in her significant bets on artificial intelligence (AI) and cybersecurity. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been a consistent favorite, returning multibagger gains since a June 2021 purchase. In December 2023, Paul Pelosi purchased 50 call options for Nvidia with a $120 strike price and a December 2024 expiration.
Further showcasing her commitment to the AI boom, Pelosi also made additional moves in Nvidia. In November 2023, she bought 50 call options with a $120 strike price that, following Nvidia‘s 10-for-1 stock split in June 2024, converted into 500 options with a $12 strike. These were strategically exercised just before expiration when the stock traded between $130 and $135 per share. Nvidia remains the largest position in her portfolio, representing approximately 22% of its total value.
In the cybersecurity realm, Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW) also features prominently. In February 2024, Pelosi purchased 50 call options for Palo Alto Networks at a $200 strike price with a January 2025 expiration, adding 20 more call options later that month. Both Nvidia and Palo Alto Networks are poised to benefit from the sustained demand for generative AI and robust cybersecurity solutions in the years ahead, making them compelling choices for long-term investors despite current valuation concerns.
2025 Bets: Tempus AI, Broadcom, and More
The first half of 2025 has seen the Pelosi portfolio continue its aggressive strategy, particularly with notable entries into several promising companies.
One of the standout trades has been in Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM), an artificial intelligence-powered healthcare outfit. In January 2025, Pelosi acquired 50 call option contracts with a strike price of $20, expiring on January 16, 2026. This investment, estimated between $50,000 and $100,000, proved particularly prescient. Months later, Tempus AI announced a $200 million deal with AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN). The stock, trading around $31 at the time of purchase, soared to $89.23 by October 25, 2025, representing a 180% gain. Her 50 contracts are now estimated to be worth approximately $347,200.
Another significant move was in Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO). In January 2025, Pelosi bought 20 call options on Broadcom with an $800 strike price and a June 20, 2025 expiry, just weeks before the AI semiconductor stock underwent its own 10-for-1 stock split. These options were exercised a year later when Broadcom was trading at $250 a share. Today, Broadcom trades for over $354 per share and constitutes Pelosi’s second-largest position, accounting for 15% of her portfolio.
Additional major purchases in January 2025, all with January 16, 2026, expiration dates, include:
- Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM): 50 call options at a $20 strike price. With the stock at $43.23, the intrinsic value is $116,150.
- Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA): 50 call options at an $80 strike price. Despite a drop since purchase, the current stock price of $98.89 still yields an intrinsic value of $94,450.
- Vistra Corp (NYSE: VST): 50 call options at a $50 strike price. This has been a strong performer, with the stock surging to $112.63, giving an intrinsic value of $313,150.
- Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN): 50 call options at a $150 strike price. With Amazon currently at $173.18, the intrinsic value stands at $115,900.
- Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL): 50 call options at a $150 strike price. Currently trading at $151.47, these options have an intrinsic value of $7,350.
Investor Takeaways: Mimicking the Pelosi Playbook
For long-term investors seeking to emulate Pelosi’s success, several key strategies emerge. Her portfolio consistently targets companies in high-growth, transformative sectors such as AI and cybersecurity. This proactive positioning in megatrends has allowed her to capitalize on significant market shifts.
The frequent use of call options is another cornerstone of the Pelosi playbook. By often purchasing “in-the-money” options, she leverages capital efficiently, limiting initial outlay while maximizing upside potential. This approach requires conviction in the underlying stock’s long-term trajectory.
While the long-term outlook for many of Pelosi’s picks (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Palo Alto Networks) remains strong due to their exposure to AI and cybersecurity, it’s crucial for investors to consider current valuations. Some of these stocks trade at elevated forward price-to-earnings ratios, such as Apple at nearly 26x, and Microsoft and Nvidia well above 30x, with Palo Alto Networks at a sky-high 47x. Despite these metrics, a strong growth narrative can often justify premium valuations for market leaders.
Ultimately, Pelosi’s investment strategy highlights the potential rewards of a conviction-based, long-term approach focused on innovation. While blindly mimicking trades is not advisable, understanding the underlying principles and performing individual due diligence on such growth-oriented opportunities can be highly beneficial for a diversified portfolio.
The Ethical Debate: Insider Information or Savvy Investing?
The extraordinary returns generated by Nancy Pelosi and other members of Congress inevitably lead to questions about the ethical implications of their trading activities. Critics argue that their access to legislative information, upcoming regulations, and corporate oversight responsibilities could provide an unfair advantage, whether consciously exploited or not. The swift sales of Microsoft and Visa before major regulatory actions are often cited as examples that fuel this debate.
Despite repeated denials of using insider information, efforts to ban stock trading by politicians have consistently faced resistance in Congress. For members of the investing community, this ongoing discussion underscores the importance of transparency and the need for clear ethical guidelines to maintain public trust in both financial markets and government institutions.
