Museveni’s 72% landslide keeps him in power until 2031, but the price is an internet blackout, a hunted opposition leader and fresh bloodshed that mocks Uganda’s democratic promises.
Yoweri Museveni was declared winner of Uganda’s 2026 presidential race with 71.9% of ballots, the Electoral Commission announced in Kampala, extending his uninterrupted rule to 45 years and making him one of the world’s ten longest-serving leaders.
The commission’s final tally gave pop-star-turned-lawmaker Robert Kyagulanyi—better known as Bobi Wine—24.3%. Wine, 44, vanished hours after the announcement, telling followers on X that soldiers and police “switched off power and cut CCTV” during a night raid on his Magere compound. Security forces maintain a cordon around the property; his wife and two children remain inside, unable to leave.
Seven dead in post-poll shooting
Police spokesperson Kituuma Rusoke confirmed that officers shot dead seven people in Mityana District after what he called an attack by “goons” loyal to local MP Muwanga Kivumbi. Kivumbi counters that ten civilians were executed inside his home. The contradictory accounts have not been independently verified; mobile-data blackout has hampered on-ground reporting since election eve.
Constitution rewritten twice to keep Museveni in office
Museveni, 81, first took power in January 1986 after a five-year guerrilla war. Term limits were scraped in 2005; age caps followed in 2017. Each change was ratified by parliaments where his National Resistance Movement held a super-majority. Western diplomats privately warn the pattern undermines Kampala’s obligations under the East African Community’s governance protocols.
Campaign trail violence and mass arrests
The 2026 race was the third straight election marred by state force. According to Reuters tallies, at least one bystander was shot dead in November when police dispersed a Wine rally in Masaka; 524 NUP supporters were detained nationwide on campaign-related charges. All major opposition gatherings required military clearance under COVID-19 regulations invoked only for political events.
Internet kill-switch silences critics
Uganda’s communications regulator ordered Facebook, X, WhatsApp and the entire mobile-data network dark at 6 p.m. local time on 13 January, hours before voting began. The blackout—justified as a measure against “misinformation”—remains in force, complicating election observation and cutting off 18 million internet subscribers. The tactic mirrors shutdowns in 2016 and 2021, both followed by Museveni victories.
Oil boom looms as succession intrigue grows
Parliament approved a $3.5 billion final investment decision for the TotalEnergies-led Tilenga and EACOP projects last December; first crude exports are slated for 2028. GDP growth is forecast to leap from 5.2% to 11% once production starts, giving Museveni fresh patronage resources. Party insiders say the president is grooming his son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, 52, currently chief of land forces, for eventual takeover—a charge Museveni denies.
International reaction muted
Washington’s last statement before polls closed said the campaign “fell short of international standards for free and fair elections,” language first used after the 2021 vote. The African Union observer mission issued a generic call for calm; the European Union cancelled its mission, citing “lack of cooperation.” Uganda contributes 6,200 troops to the AU mission in Somalia—a deployment that secures Western military training funds worth $120 million annually.
What happens next
- Inauguration: Museveni will be sworn in on 12 May 2026 under a constitutional timetable.
- Bobi Wine: His legal team plans to petition the Supreme Court within 15 days, though the judiciary has never overturned a presidential result.
- Internet: Telecom sources expect partial restoration by 20 January once “security operations” conclude.
- Succession: A cabinet reshuffle is expected by March that could elevate General Kainerugaba to vice-president, formalising his front-runner status.
Bottom line
Uganda’s 2026 election delivered exactly what the incumbent needed: a lopsided win, a muzzled opposition and a global audience too pre-occupied to punish fresh democratic backsliding. With oil revenues approaching and security leverage in the Horn of Africa, Museveni has again traded democratic legitimacy for geopolitical staying power—leaving Bobi Wine’s movement scattered offline and the country’s youth majority locked out of power for another half-decade.
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