Mohamed Aly El-Erian, chief economic advisor for Allianz SE.
Bloomberg | Getty Images
President Donald Trump’s extensive raft of import tariffs are putting the U.S. economy at risk of recession, Allianz’s Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian warned on Friday.
He added that Trump’s swathe of so-called reciprocal tariffs could have a significant effect on the global economy.
“You’ve had a major repricing of growth prospects, with a recession in the U.S. going up to 50% probability, you’ve seen an increase in inflation expectations, up to 3.5%,” he told ‘s Silvia Amaro on the sidelines of the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, Italy.
“I don’t think [a U.S. recession] is inevitable because the structure of the economy is so strong, but the risk has become uncomfortably high.”
El-Erian also warned that markets were underestimating the inflation impact of the tariffs regime.
“The first reaction has been concerns about growth. We haven’t had two other reactions yet: what will happen to growth in other countries, and that makes a question mark on whether the dollar weakness will continue, and then what does the [Federal Reserve] do?” he questioned.
“I think if we’re lucky we’ll get one rate cut, not four, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we get none,” El-Erian added.
“If it’s a normal Fed — and I say this qualification with a lot of emphasis, because this has not been a normal Fed — we would unlikely to get even one rate cut.”
This developing story is being updated.
