The personal bond between coaches Dusty May and Josh Schertz foreshadows a tactical war, but the true showdown is a statistical nightmare for defenders: two top-10 offenses built on identical, relentless tempo and efficiency, where Michigan’s elite defense must solve the riddle of Saint Louis’s lethal three-point attack.
The narrative of Michigan’s clash with Saint Louis begins not with a playbook, but with a 10-hour film session in Boca Raton. Wolverines head coach Dusty May and Billikens counterpart Josh Schertz, both ascended from mid-major roots, share a philosophical kinship that has produced two of the nation’s most similar and potent offenses. This connection makes Saturday’s Midwest Region second-round game in Buffalo a fascinating study in mirror-match basketball, where the ultimate prize is a Sweet 16 berth decided by subtle, critical edges.
May has heaped praise on Schertz, calling him an “absolute basketball junkie” and a “savant” from whom he’s learned much. That mutual respect stems from constructing systems that prioritize pace, ball movement, and attacking the rim. The players see it too. “They kind of play like us, to be honest with you,” said Michigan guard Roddy Gayle Jr., summarizing the eerie parallels. Forward Yaxel Lendeborg noted, “We really run the exact same way. I feel like that’s a blessing and a curse for us.”
The numbers validate this mirror-image assessment, painting a picture of a potential shootout. Both teams are top-10 nationally in scoring, with Saint Louis at 87.7 ppg (8th) and Michigan at 87.2 ppg (10th). They are also two of just three teams to surpass 100 points in their opening tournament games according to USA TODAY’s tournament score database. Their offensive efficiency is nearly identical, ranking fifth and sixth in the nation in field goal percentage, and they are both in the top seven in assists per game. Their tempo, measured by KenPom.com metrics, is also closely aligned, with the Billikens 19th and the Wolverines 22nd in adjusted pace.
Yet, the path to 100 points diverges in critical ways, and this is where the chess match begins. The most pronounced difference is from deep. Saint Louis is a three-point anomaly, ranking second nationally in percentage (39.8%) and 12th in makes per game (10.9). This volume and accuracy force defenses to extend, creating driving lanes. Michigan, by contrast, is 114th in three-point attempts, preferring a more interior-focused attack that leverages size. This creates a strategic puzzle for Michigan’s defense: how to contest the Billikens’ barrage without sacrificing their own strength—rim protection.
Defensive identity is Michigan’s ultimate trump card. The Wolverines rank second in the country in field goal percentage defense (38.5%) and are in the top 10 in blocks and defensive rebounds. Center Aday Mada framed the challenge perfectly: “We’ve got to lead with our defense. We’ve got to be disruptive.” Saint Louis forward Brady Dunlap exudes confidence in his offense’s ability to answer any run, stating, “We’re so talented offensively, we can play with anybody.” The back-and-forth suggests a game where each team’s offensive flow will be tested by the other’s defensive mettle.
Michigan also holds a talent edge with potential lottery picks like Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr., alongside elite point guard Elliott Cadeau. Furthermore, practicing against their own fast-paced system daily may provide a stamina advantage against Saint Louis’s transition attack, which averages 16.9 fastbreak points (6th nationally) compared to Michigan’s 12.4 (78th). However, Schertz’s team practices against the same style, neutralizing any perceived conditioning benefit.
- Michigan’s Defensive Edge: 2nd in FG% defense (38.5%), 3rd in blocks (5.9/game).
- Saint Louis’s Offensive Firepower: 2nd in 3-point% (39.8%), 5th in overall FG% (51.2%).
- Tempo Twins: Both top-25 in adjusted pace per KenPom.com, ensuring a high-possession game.
- Coaching Lineage: Both May (FAU) and Schertz (Lincoln Memorial/Indiana State) built from the mid-majors, emphasizing offensive autonomy.
The decisive factor may be early execution. Michigan struggled early against Howard, allowing 10 first-half threes and trailing shortly after halftime. Saint Louis, conversely, jumped on Georgia from the tip, leading by 17 at halftime. Controlling the initial tempo to feed their defensive strengths while disrupting Saint Louis’s rhythmic three-point assault is Michigan’s most important subplot. Can the Wolverines’ size and rim protection force the Billikens into contested, two-point attempts? Or will Saint Louis’s shooting barrage overwhelm Michigan’s defensive structure?
For fans, this game represents a pure, unadulterated basketball clash of styles with identical cores. It’s a bracket question of whether prolific offense can overcome elite defense—the classic March Madness dilemma. The personal story between May and Schertz adds a human layer, but on the court, it’s a brutal, statistical showdown where every possession will feel like a direct counter to the last.
This analysis is based on the original reporting from USA TODAY Sports and verified with data from its linked team statistics and KenPom.com metrics.
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