Around 13% of Mexicans likely turned out to vote in the country’s first-ever judicial election, Mexico’s INE electoral authority said on Monday, as the government hailed a successful process while analysts said the low turnout could undermine an already controversial reform.
President Claudia Sheinbaum estimated that some 13 million of around 100 million eligible voters cast ballots on Sunday to elect some 2,600 judges and magistrates, including all nine Supreme Court justices.
Counting is set to conclude on June 15, but INE officials estimated the turnout at between 12.57% and 13.32% using a calculation based on several samples taken across the country.
Sheinbaum called the process a “complete success,” citing a free vote and a frugal campaign at a morning press conference.
“Everything can be perfected. We will draw conclusions from yesterday to make improvements for 2027,” she said, pointing to another vote in two years that is scheduled to fill over 1,000 more judicial positions.
Interior Minister Rosa Icela Rodriguez said that “the voting took place in a climate of peace and tranquility across the length and breadth of the country.”
“Yesterday’s turnout at the polls met expectations,” she said. “It was an innovative process that generated interest among the participants.”
Voting in Mexico is not mandatory and there is no minimum turnout required to legitimize an election. Pollsters had warned of poor turnout over boycott calls by the opposition and the complexity of voting for a large number of candidates.
Questionable credentials
Goldman Sachs’ chief Latin America economist, Alberto Ramos, said in a note that the low turnout took away from the process’ legitimacy, and that the pre-selection process and logistical organization were “fraught with controversy.”
“The vast majority of the roughly 3,400 candidates were largely unknown, many have limited legal experience and some questionable credentials for the seats they are seeking,” he said.
Bradesco analyst Rodolfo Ramos said he thought the turnout was surprisingly low, “considering Sheinbaum’s high approval rating and the fact that the majority of Mexicans were in favor of directly voting for judges.”
Sheinbaum, who inherited the judicial election project from her predecessor and mentor, former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, has backed the vote as a way to democratize justice and root out corruption and nepotism.
However, critics say it could remove checks and balances on the executive power and allow for organized crime groups to wield greater influence by running their own candidates.
The run-up to the vote had been dominated by a scandal over some of the candidates, including a convicted drug smuggler and a former lawyer of drug kingpin Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman.
Late on Sunday, Mexico’s Specialized Prosecutor’s Office for Electoral Crimes said it had received 23 reports of possible electoral crimes related to the elections of nearly 900 positions at the federal-level judiciary.
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