March home sales drop to slowest pace since 2009

Higher mortgage rates and concern over the broader economy are making for a weak start to the all-important spring housing market.

Sales of previously owned homes in March fell 5.9% from February to 4.02 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s the slowest March sales pace since 2009.

Sales were 2.4% lower than March 2024 and slumped across all regions month-to-month. They fell hardest in the West, the priciest region of the country, down more than 9%. The West, however, was the only region to see a year-over-year gain, due to strong activity in the Rocky Mountain states where job growth is strong.

This count is based on closings, therefore contracts likely signed in January and February, when the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage was over 7%. It did not fall solidly below 7% until Feb. 20, according to Mortgage News Daily.

“Home buying and selling remained sluggish in March due to the affordability challenges associated with high mortgage rates,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Residential housing mobility, currently at historical lows, signals the troublesome possibility of less economic mobility for society.”

Sales fell despite a sharp increase in available listings. At the end of March, there were 1.33 million units for sale, an increase of nearly 20% from March 2024. At the current sales pace, that is equivalent to a 4-month supply, which is still on the lean side. A 6-month supply is considered a balanced market between buyer and seller.

More inventory and slower sales are starting put a chill on prices. The median price of an existing home sold in March was $403,700. That is still an all-time high for the month, but it’s only up 2.7% from last March. That annual comparison has been shrinking since December and is the smallest gain since August.

“In a stark contrast to the stock and bond markets, household wealth in residential real estate continues to reach new heights,” Yun said. “With real estate asset valuation at $52 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, each percentage point gain in home prices adds more than $500 billion to the household balance sheet.”

First-time buyers made up 32% of the market in March, the same as in March 2024. Historically they make up roughly 40%.

All-cash sales dropped to 26% from 28% the year before, but investors held steady at 15% of sales.

Looking ahead, the Realtors are already reporting a rise in canceled contracts in March, and, given the stock market volatility in April, that could increase.

“March numbers are bad, but they’re likely to get worse,” noted Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union. “In addition to the existing pressures of high prices and high mortgage rates, prices for home furnishing will likely rise soon due to tariffs, and rising anxiety among consumers over inflation and jobs may magnify the instinct to hunker down already being felt by many families.”