Man City cannot defend on transition, Forest still the best front-runners and Emmanuel Agbadou’s Wolves impact

⬇️ Man City’s dismal defending in transition
🔴 Nuno’s Forest are master front-runners
🔶 How Agbadou improved Wolves’ defence

Carlos Baleba had a late chance to win the game for Brighton away to Manchester City but the ball bobbled, his shot ballooned over the bar and it finished 2-2. But that breakaway still highlighted something that has haunted Pep Guardiola this season.

This home game against Brighton was the 19th Premier League game this season in which Guardiola’s City have conceded an opportunity from a counter-attack against them. That failure to control the transitions has fatally undermined their title defence.

For context, it means City have allowed a shot on transition in more games than any other side in the competition – one more than both Ipswich and Leicester. And while it has been a theme of conversation around City for some time, the scale of the problem is a new one.

Even with nine games of the Premier League season remaining, City have already allowed a shot on transition in more games than ever before. It is a growing issue. But why? Rodri’s absence from the middle of the pitch is, of course, an obvious explanation.

There is more to it than that, however. While the issue is structural, as evidenced by the space Baleba was able to exploit, and perhaps a mentality problem too given that he was able to run away from several City players, it is also about dismal one-on-one defending.

Three seasons ago, City won the ball back from a higher percentage of one-on-one situations than any other Premier League team. Now, they win the ball back from a lower percentage of those one-on-one situations than any other Premier League team.

It is a seismic shift, a weakness that was once a strength, and one that Guardiola is seeing punished time and time again. City were fortunate to escape that punishment against Brighton but Baleba’s chance illustrated some of the concerns in this respect.

Danny Welbeck was able to shrug off Omar Marmoush. Abdukodir Khusanov found himself completely bypassed. Rico Lewis was not tight enough to impact Kaoru Mitoma. Nico Gonzalez could not catch Joao Pedro. Ruben Dias failed to engage.

This is a City team that is in the process of being rebuilt and big changes are ahead. But unless Guardiola can find a way to improve the team’s defending, individually and collectively, then their failure to manage the transitions will continue to be a problem.

Forest are the master front-runners

Nottingham Forest edged closer to Champions League qualification next season with a convincing win over Ipswich. On the face of it, their 4-2 victory was very different to the 1-0 defeat of Manchester City last weekend but, in fact, there were notable similarities.

Nuno Espirito Santo named the same starting line-up for both games and while Forest’s three-goal blitz in the first half at Ipswich might suggest otherwise, both performances were built on keeping it tight early on – something that has become a Nuno trademark.

Two-goal hero Anthony Elanga summed up the plan: “We knew in the first 15 minutes here at Ipswich, they are really strong, so we wanted to see it out and when we get the opportunities, to break and hurt them – and I think we did it fantastically today.”

This was first-half clean sheet No 20 for Forest in the Premier League this season, reaching the interval without conceding more times than any other team. Nuno never wants to be the one to open a game, preferring to wait for the opposition to offer gaps.

It is a popular strategy away from home, but Forest do it in front of their own fans too. They have conceded only one goal at home in the opening 45 minutes all season and are the only team never to be behind at the break. Manchester City have let in 12.

Even champions-elect Liverpool have conceded more goals than they have scored in the opening 10 minutes of matches this season. Forest are different. No team has scored more opening goals in the first 30 minutes of games – or the last 30 minutes.

In fact, 22 times this season, Forest have scored the opening goal of the game, which is more than any other team. It does not always bring the victory – they did so in both games against Newcastle and lost each time – but it is the foundation of their success.

Agbadou’s aggression has saved Wolves

Wolves moved nine points clear of the bottom three with victory away to Southampton on Saturday to ease fears about relegation. Given that they were five points from safety when Vitor Pereira was appointed in December, it has been quite the turnaround.

There can be no denying that Matheus Cunha has been the star but the win at St Mary’s was achieved without him and it was Wolves’ defence, not their attack, that had to improve under Pereira. And it is the signing of Emmanuel Agbadou that has been key to that.

That was evident against Saints when Agbadou won what might be regarded as a routine header on the halfway line in the build-up to Jorgen Strand Larsen’s second goal that turned out to be the winner. Straightforward? Maybe. But an example of the change.

Without the January signing at the heart of the defence, such seemingly simple moments had played out very differently. When Agbadou was injured and missed the recent defeat to Fulham, Rodrigo Muniz terrorised his replacement Santi Bueno.

Pereira wanted to see a more aggressive approach. The Portuguese could often be seen gesturing for his defenders to get closer to their opponent and engage rather than drop off to cover for their lack of pace. The popular Craig Dawson quickly fell from favour.

Agbadou has brought speed and strength to the back line, but most conspicuously that desire to win the ball. In fact, the 27-year-old Ivory Coast international is winning back possession in the defensive third more regularly than any other Premier League player.

Together with the fit again Toti Gomes, the defence looks meaner. Only Liverpool have beaten Wolves when the pair have started. They left the door ajar for the three promoted teams with their awful start to the season. But Agbadou’s arrival appears to have shut it.