Madagascar’s recent military coup, ostensibly spurred by widespread youth protests against dire living conditions, has brought no immediate relief to the very people who championed it. As Colonel Michael Randrianirina consolidates power, the nation’s young population faces persistent unemployment and inadequate public services, raising critical questions about the true beneficiaries of the regime change and the future of civilian governance in the island nation.
The streets of Antananarivo, Madagascar’s capital, recently witnessed a powerful wave of youth-led protests, ultimately paving the way for a military coup. Yet, for young citizens like Donah Falia, a 20-year-old accounting student, the change at the top has brought no immediate alleviation of their daily struggles. Falia’s life remains largely unaltered, marked by long queues for water and a bleak job market, embodying the lingering disillusionment among those who fueled the uprising.
“For us, personally, there is no answer here yet. I still don’t see any hope for us,” Falia candidly expressed to The Associated Press just one day after Colonel Michael Randrianirina was sworn in as president. This sentiment underscores a critical tension: the initial celebration of the old regime’s overthrow has given way to a cautious wait-and-see approach, tinged with skepticism about whether the new military leadership will truly address the populace’s grievances.
The Roots of the Uprising: A Nation’s Desperation
The protests, which commenced in September, were largely leaderless but unified by deep-seated anger over Madagascar’s pervasive unemployment, widespread poverty, and persistent utility outages. These conditions, affecting a significant portion of the population, created a volatile environment ripe for change. The World Bank indicates that poverty affects approximately three-fourths of the population in the island nation, highlighting the systemic issues that drove thousands into the streets. For more detailed insights into the socio-economic challenges, refer to the World Bank’s overview on Madagascar.
These demonstrations initially met with a harsh crackdown from security forces, resulting in 22 fatalities and over 100 injuries, according to the United Nations. The government at the time disputed these figures, but the casualties underscored the gravity of the situation. The tide turned when Randrianirina’s politically powerful CAPSAT unit sided with the demonstrators, prompting President Andry Rajoelina to flee the country and declare the coup illegal.
A Familiar Playbook: Recurrent Military Interventions
The ousting of President Rajoelina and Randrianirina’s subsequent installation as head of state follows a pattern that Madagascar’s approximately 30 million people have witnessed multiple times since the end of French colonial rule in 1960. This includes Rajoelina’s own rise to power as a transitional leader in a 2009 military coup. The recent events resonate with a broader trend across Africa, where military takeovers have become increasingly common in recent years.
The protesters, many of whom identify with the “One Piece” Jolly Roger symbol popular in “Gen Z” movements globally, initially welcomed the military’s intervention, seeing it as the only way to remove the old government. Randrianirina acknowledged their importance, stating after his swearing-in, “We must take the opinion of the youth to the politicians and all the power groups.” This statement, however, is now being weighed against the harsh realities of governance and historical precedents.
Echoes Across Africa: The Challenge of Military Transitions
Experts warn that Randrianirina may not cede power quickly, despite his promise of elections within two years. This skepticism is rooted in the outcomes of recent military coups in five other African nations since 2020: Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Gabon, and Niger. In all these cases, the military leaders who orchestrated the overthrow remain in power. Kaajal Ramjathan-Keogh, a policing and military interventions expert with the International Commission of Jurists, notes, “Military governments have never been able to govern in a way as to address corruption and serious social issues. Soldiers do not make good long-term leaders.”
This challenge extends across the continent. Bakary Sambe, who heads the Senegal-based Timbuktu Institute for Peace Studies, points out that transitions after military takeovers are consistently difficult. In the Sahel region, coups were often legitimized by initial popular support, with the military positioned as “saviors.” Sambe cautions, “Young people and civil society saw the military takeover as a sort of democratization from the bottom-up, but it is unclear how long this will last.” For a deeper analysis of this trend, consider insights from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies on coup trends in Africa.
Unanswered Hopes and the Threat of Renewed Action
For individuals like Donah Falia, the lack of tangible improvement is stark. In his Anosimahavelona neighborhood, power and water cuts persist, and job prospects remain elusive. “Here, people of my age, they almost all don’t work. They are standing here with their hands in their pockets — they have no income,” he observes.
This simmering discontent suggests that the military’s honeymoon period may be brief. Tsantsa Fiderana Rakotoarison, a 22-year-old student and protester, remains hopeful but vigilant, asserting, “Even though the CAPSAT group took responsibility after the whole change, they know that young people are able to speak up again.”
Indeed, some youth protesters, alongside labor unions and civic groups, have already vowed to hold the new government accountable. Farasoa Rakotomanana, a 63-year-old protester, articulated the ultimatum: “The youth have already said that they will rise again at May 13th Square if their demands are not met.” May 13th Square holds symbolic significance as the central gathering point where Randrianirina’s unit publicly sided with the demonstrators.
The appointment of businessman Herintsalama Rajaonarivelo as prime minister has also failed to gain significant favor with the protesting youth, further complicating Randrianirina’s path to establishing stable and broadly accepted governance. Ramjathan-Keogh suggests that the focus should now turn to whether “any youth leaders will step up to contest the next election,” should one genuinely materialize.
The Road Ahead: Challenges and Uncertainties
Madagascar stands at a critical juncture. While the immediate objective of removing the old government was achieved with public support, the deeper structural issues of unemployment, poverty, and governance remain unresolved. The youth, who provided the initial impetus for change, now find themselves in a familiar waiting game, hoping their voices continue to be heard. The ultimate success of Randrianirina’s regime, and indeed Madagascar’s future stability, hinges on whether these profound societal challenges can finally be addressed, or if the cycle of military intervention and unmet promises will merely repeat itself.
