Madagascar finds itself at a critical juncture as Colonel Michael Randrianirina, leader of the elite CAPSAT military unit, has taken control of the nation, prompting the flight of President Andry Rajoelina. This dramatic power shift, fueled by weeks of youth-led anti-government protests, has drawn swift international condemnation from the United Nations and the African Union, underscoring the deep-seated political instability that has long plagued the Indian Ocean island.
The streets of Antananarivo, Madagascar’s capital, recently witnessed a significant political upheaval, culminating in a military takeover that saw an army colonel assume the presidency. This event follows weeks of intense anti-government protests, primarily led by the disillusioned youth, known as “Gen Z Madagascar,” who expressed widespread grievances over government failures and corruption. The swift unseating of President Andry Rajoelina has once again cast a spotlight on Madagascar’s enduring struggle with political instability since its independence.
The Ascent of Colonel Michael Randrianirina
At the center of this transition is Colonel Michael Randrianirina, commander of the elite CAPSAT military unit. After three weeks of escalating protests, Colonel Randrianirina and his troops rebelled against President Rajoelina, joining the demonstrators last weekend. On Tuesday, October 14, 2025, he announced that the armed forces were taking control of the country. Just three days later, on Friday, October 17, he was set to be swiftly sworn in as president, signing a statement as the leader of the “refounded” republic of Madagascar.
Despite international condemnation labeling the takeover as a coup, Colonel Randrianirina has insisted that it was “not a coup.” He clarified to journalists that “a coup is when soldiers enter the presidential palace with weapons. They shoot. There is bloodshed… this is not a coup.” Instead, he characterized the military’s actions as “taking responsibility because the country was on the brink of collapse.” The country’s highest court subsequently confirmed his appointment as “president of the refounding of the republic of Madagascar,” lending an appearance of legality to the military’s move.
The Ouster and Flight of President Andry Rajoelina
The military’s intervention led to the flight of President Andry Rajoelina, who stated his life was in danger. His whereabouts remain unknown, though media reports suggested he was evacuated to the French island of Reunion before traveling to Dubai, where he maintains a residence. Rajoelina, who first came to power through a military-backed coup in 2009 and was subsequently elected in 2018 and 2023, has rejected the military takeover as an illegal coup attempt. This marks his second ousting from power via military rebellion.
The former president’s office criticized the constitutional court’s decision to appoint the CAPSAT commander, citing procedural illegalities and potential destabilization. This underscores the cyclical nature of political transitions in Madagascar, where leaders frequently rise and fall with military backing or opposition, as reported by the Associated Press.
“Gen Z Madagascar”: The Driving Force of Protest
The catalyst for the military intervention was a series of deadly anti-government protests, spearheaded by a youth movement operating under the banner of “Gen Z Madagascar.” These young people had been railing against a host of systemic issues, including government service failures, pervasive poverty, and a glaring lack of opportunities. Accusations of corruption and nepotism among the elite fueled their outrage, leading to widespread mobilization that began on September 25 over critical shortages of water and power.
The uprising resonated with other youth-led protest movements globally that have previously toppled leaders in nations like Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. The Gen Z movement enthusiastically welcomed the military’s intervention, viewing it as a “saviour” that could bring about “systemic change.” This sentiment highlights the depth of public frustration with the previous administration and the desperate hope for a new direction, even if it comes through unconventional means.
International Outcry and Regional Context
The international community has largely condemned the military takeover. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres explicitly “condemns the unconstitutional change of government in Madagascar and calls for the return to constitutional order and the rule of law,” according to his spokesperson, Stéphane Dujarric. He also urged Malagasy stakeholders, including the youth, to address the underlying causes of instability, as reported by the Associated Press.
The African Union (AU) swiftly suspended Madagascar, stating it “totally rejects” the takeover and dispatched a delegation for talks on “restoration of constitutional order.” The Southern African Development Community (SADC) also sent a fact-finding mission. This event places Madagascar among several other former French colonies in Africa that have experienced military takeovers since 2020, including Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Gabon, and Guinea, highlighting a troubling trend of democratic backsliding across the continent.
Madagascar’s Enduring Struggle with Instability and Poverty
Madagascar, a nation of around 32 million people, has a long and turbulent history since gaining independence from France in 1960. The island nation has endured numerous coups and attempted coups, leading to persistent political instability. This political turmoil exacerbates the country’s severe socio-economic challenges, with approximately 80 percent of its population living in poverty, according to the World Bank. Drought and hunger further compound the difficulties faced by its citizens.
The repeated cycles of popular uprisings and the establishment of military-backed governments underscore a deep-seated fragility in the nation’s governance. Experts like Olufemi Taiwo, a professor of Africana studies at Cornell University, have emphasized that the recent protests were a “civil society uprising,” and that its resolution should ideally not involve the military. This perspective points to the complex interplay between popular grievances, political elites, and military power in shaping Madagascar’s destiny.
The Road Ahead: Promises and Uncertainties
Colonel Randrianirina has outlined a plan for the transitional period, pledging elections within 18 to 24 months. He announced that a council of military officers would be in charge of the country, with him as president, and that consultations are underway to appoint a new prime minister and form a new government. He also expressed a desire to include members of the youth-led Gen Z movement in his administration, recognizing their critical role in initiating the protests.
Life in Antananarivo has reportedly regained a semblance of normality, with public celebrations of the takeover. However, the path forward remains fraught with uncertainty. The transition to civilian leadership, the restructuring of major institutions, and the genuine addressal of the underlying issues of poverty, corruption, and service failures will be monumental tasks for the new military-led government. The eyes of both the Malagasy people and the international community will be closely watching to see if this latest power shift can break the cycle of instability or if it is merely another chapter in Madagascar’s challenging political narrative.
