Colonel Michael Randrianirina, leader of Madagascar’s elite CAPSAT military unit, has declared himself president following a military rebellion that ousted President Andry Rajoelina. This dramatic takeover caps weeks of intense youth-led protests against government failures and plunges the Indian Ocean nation into its latest political crisis, drawing swift condemnation from international bodies like the African Union and the United Nations.
The Indian Ocean island nation of Madagascar is once again gripped by political turmoil as Colonel Michael Randrianirina, the leader of an elite military unit, announced he is “taking the position of president” following a swift military takeover. This declaration, made in an interview with The Associated Press from his barracks in Antananarivo, marks the culmination of weeks of escalating public discontent and a rebellion that forced incumbent President Andry Rajoelina to flee the country.
Colonel Randrianirina, who spearheaded the rebellion, anticipates being officially sworn in as the new head of state within days. His ascendancy follows his announcement on Tuesday that the armed forces were seizing power, a move that resonated with a populace frustrated by widespread grievances and years of political instability.
The Genesis of the Uprising: Weeks of Youth-Led Protests
The recent military takeover did not emerge in a vacuum; it capped weeks of intense anti-government protests primarily led by youth groups, collectively identifying themselves as “Gen Z Madagascar.” These demonstrations highlighted deep-seated frustrations across the sprawling country of 30 million people, known globally as a leading vanilla producer and for its unique biodiversity.
Protesters, joined by labor unions and civic organizations, demanded fundamental improvements in governance and greater job opportunities. Their core grievances included:
- Chronic water and electricity outages
- Limited access to higher education
- Pervasive government corruption
- High levels of poverty, affecting approximately three out of every four Malagasy citizens, according to the World Bank.
The protests reached a critical turning point on Saturday when Colonel Randrianirina and soldiers from his elite CAPSAT military unit publicly sided with the demonstrators. This alliance forced President Rajoelina to flee, citing fears for his life, and set the stage for the military’s formal intervention.
The Constitutional Contradiction and Rajoelina’s Rejection
Colonel Randrianirina claims his assumption of power was sanctioned by the country’s High Constitutional Court (HCC), which he stated invited him to take on the role in Rajoelina’s absence. However, this claim appears to contradict his own announcement just one day prior, in which the military council declared it was suspending the powers of the very court he cited. Rajoelina’s office, in turn, alleged that some HCC judges were threatened into signing off on the colonel’s ascendancy, further muddying the legal legitimacy of the takeover.
From an undisclosed location where he fled, President Rajoelina, who has served since 2018 and was reelected in 2023, categorically rejected the military’s actions as an illegal coup attempt by a rebel faction. He himself had fired his government just a month before, in an attempt to pacify the growing unrest, a period that saw a crackdown by security forces resulting in 22 deaths and over 100 injuries, according to the United Nations, though Rajoelina’s government disputed these figures.
The military leadership has pledged to swiftly appoint a new prime minister and form a government to address the crisis, with Randrianirina stating an accelerated timeline to prevent the crisis from lingering. He also indicated that the armed forces would remain in charge for an interim period of “at least 18 months, at most two years” before new elections are held.
International Reaction and Historical Context
The international community has responded with immediate concern and condemnation. The African Union (AU) announced the immediate suspension of Madagascar from its bodies until constitutional order is restored. This follows a pattern of the AU suspending other member states, such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, after military coups.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed deep concern over the “unconstitutional change of power” and urged all stakeholders to work towards a peaceful settlement. Experts like Olufemi Taiwo, a professor of Africana Studies at Cornell University, have underscored that while the youth uprising represented legitimate grievances, the military takeover is an undesirable resolution. He advocated for the AU to condemn the coup and for no country to recognize the new military leadership, emphasizing that “this is a civil society uprising and its resolution should not involve the military.”
Madagascar has a long and turbulent history of coups and political crises since gaining independence from France in 1960. Notably, Andry Rajoelina himself first came to power as a transitional leader in a 2009 military-led coup, casting himself then as a champion of the youth. This latest event, therefore, echoes a familiar pattern of political instability that has consistently hampered the island nation’s development and perpetuated high levels of poverty.
The Path Forward: An Uncertain Future
As Colonel Michael Randrianirina prepares to formalize his leadership, the focus remains on the military’s ability to stabilize the country, address the root causes of the protests, and adhere to its promised timeline for elections. The immediate future of Madagascar is fraught with uncertainty, balancing the hopes of a discontented population with the complexities of constitutional governance and international pressure for a swift return to civilian rule. The world watches to see if this latest chapter in Madagascar’s political history will break the cycle of instability or merely repeat it.
