In a dramatic turn of events, Colonel Michael Randrianirina has seized power in Madagascar, planning to be sworn in as president after a military coup ousted civilian leader Andry Rajoelina. This latest upheaval, condemned by international bodies like the African Union and United Nations, highlights the island nation’s deep-seated political instability and dire economic challenges, driven by widespread poverty and youth discontent.
A Familiar Pattern: The Coup Unfolds in Antananarivo
The capital city of Antananarivo is once again the center of a military takeover as Colonel Michael Randrianirina, a former commander in the elite CAPSAT army unit, declared himself the new leader. Randrianirina announced his intention to be sworn in as the “President for the Refoundation of the Republic of Madagascar” on Friday, with the High Constitutional Court performing the ceremony. This move follows widespread youth-led “Gen Z” protests demanding the resignation of President Andry Rajoelina, who fled abroad over the weekend and was subsequently impeached by lawmakers.
President Rajoelina has condemned the takeover, asserting his refusal to step down despite the growing popular dissent and significant defections within the security forces. The unrest was reportedly fueled by public anger over frequent power outages and water shortages, exacerbating the nation’s severe economic hardships.
Colonel Randrianirina’s Vision and Transitional Rule
In a press conference held on Thursday, Colonel Randrianirina outlined his immediate plans and a roadmap for the country. The military has dissolved all institutions, with the sole exception of the lower house of parliament, or National Assembly. He announced the formation of a committee led by the military, which will govern alongside a transitional government for up to two years before organizing new elections.
Randrianirina also expressed openness to dialogue with the African Union, a crucial stance given the bloc’s swift response to the coup. His willingness to engage suggests an attempt to mitigate international isolation, though the path to legitimacy remains challenging.
International Condemnation and the Spectre of Isolation
The international community has reacted swiftly and decisively to the unconstitutional change of government. The African Union announced its immediate suspension of Madagascar‘s membership on Wednesday, a decision Randrianirina reportedly “expected.” The 55-member bloc also called for the immediate restoration of civilian-led governance and the organization of new elections. Such a suspension carries significant political weight, potentially isolating the new leadership from regional cooperation and aid, as outlined in the African Union’s immediate suspension statement.
Adding to the international pressure, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the takeover on Thursday. His spokesperson, Stephane Dujarric, stated that Guterres called for a return to constitutional order and the rule of law. The Secretary-General further encouraged all Malagasy stakeholders, including the youth, to work collaboratively to address the root causes of instability, reiterating the UN’s availability to support national efforts.
Madagascar’s Cycle of Political Turmoil
This latest coup is not an isolated incident but rather fits into Madagascar‘s turbulent post-independence political history. Notably, Colonel Michael Randrianirina was a key figure in the elite CAPSAT army unit that facilitated the 2009 coup, which initially brought Andry Rajoelina to power by ousting then-President Marc Ravalomanana. However, Randrianirina reportedly “broke ranks” with Rajoelina last week, specifically urging soldiers not to fire on protesters. This historical connection underscores a recurring theme of military intervention in Malagasy politics. Previous reports from the 2009 coup detail a similar scenario of public discontent leading to military involvement.
The Deeper Roots: Poverty, Youth, and Economic Crisis
Underlying Madagascar‘s chronic political instability are profound socioeconomic challenges. With a population of approximately 30 million, the nation faces a demographic crisis: the average age is less than 20 years old, and a staggering three-quarters of its people live in poverty. The economic trajectory has been dire, with the GDP per capita plunging a devastating 45% between its independence in 1960 and 2020, according to World Bank data.
These grim statistics create fertile ground for widespread discontent, particularly among the large youth population, who are often at the forefront of protests demanding change. The recent demonstrations, initially sparked by basic service failures like power and water, quickly escalated into calls for the president’s resignation, reflecting a deep-seated frustration with governance and living conditions.
Looking Ahead: A Precarious Path to Stability
As Colonel Michael Randrianirina prepares to assume the presidency, Madagascar stands at a critical juncture. The promise of a transitional government and future elections offers a glimmer of hope for a return to constitutional order, but the challenges are immense. The new leadership will face immediate pressure to address the pressing issues that fueled the recent protests, while also navigating the complexities of international isolation and restoring trust among a weary populace.
The international community, through the African Union and United Nations, has made its position clear: a civilian-led government and democratic processes are paramount. The coming months will reveal whether Madagascar can break its cycle of coups and build a more stable, prosperous future for its young and impoverished population.
