WASHINGTON – The Senate will begin voting on President Donald Trump’s sweeping bill on tax cuts, Medicaid and border security, after a marathon weekend of caustic debate and political maneuvering, but the result isn’t known for certain.
The finish line will come after a whirlwind of votes nicknamed a “vote-a-rama” on what are expected to be dozens of amendments, which could take hours.
The outcome is slightly uncertain because Republicans, who hold a 53-47 majority, face united Democratic opposition − and the defection of at least two of their own members.
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If the Senate approves the bill, it heads back to the House, where votes are scheduled to begin 9 a.m. on July 2.
Sens. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, and Thom Tillis, R-North Carolina, voted against even debating the bill. A third GOP opponent would force Vice President JD Vance to break the tie. A fourth could kill the bill.
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Trump hailed the vote to begin debate a “GREAT VICTORY” on social media and said the package would spur economic growth. He threatened to find a primary opponent to challenge Tillis next year and welcomed the senator’s decision June 29 not to seek re-election.
Senate leaders have negotiated to calm concerns about issues such as Medicaid cuts and whether overall government spending is reduced enough. The bill is projected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, which is $800 billion more than the House version, according to a nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimate.
Here is what we know about the debate:
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12 million to lose Medicaid under Senate GOP bill
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Senate version of the budget reconciliation bill would leave 11.8 million people uninsured by 2034. Previously, the CBP estimated 10.9 million people would lose Medicaid under the House proposal.
But Senate Republicans concerned with the swelling national debt forced additional cuts to Medicaid benefits – more than $1 trillion worth.
The Senate included an amendment that would not only slash the program writ large – as House Republicans wanted – but would also reduce the federal share of Medicaid spending for people enrolled through state-level expansions of the Affordable Care Act. The expansions made more people eligible for subsidized insurance.
“The Senate bill will cut health care more deeply than the House bill and leave more people uninsured,” Sarah Lueck, vice president at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, said in a June 29 post on X.
States would be forced to pay more to maintain their Medicaid expansions over this period as a result, she said.
Republican-led Florida and Texas each have more than 1 million residents on Medicaid, among the highest in the country. But many other Republican-led states have some of the lowest levels of coverage by private insurers, and Medicaid is a staple for hundreds of thousands of residents of Louisiana, South Carolina, and Georgia, among others.
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-North Carolina, blasted the proposed cuts in a firey speech on the Senate floor June 29. “What do I tell 663,000 people in two years or three years when President Trump breaks his promise by pushing them off of Medicaid because the funding is not there?” he said.
The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities now estimates that health care costs to people covered by Medicaid could go up dramatically as well, pushing the number of people who might lose coverage to near 17 million.
—Lauren Villagran
Trump foe Thom Tillis still opposed to mega bill
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-North Carolina, remains a key holdout in the ongoing Senate process.
“I’m still focused on the devastating impact on Medicaid,” he told reporters while walking into the chamber the morning of June 30.
Tillis, a persistent thorn in Trump’s side, announced over the weekend he will not seek re-election next year.
“The choice is between spending another six years navigating the political theatre and partisan gridlock in Washington or spending that time with the love of my life Susan, our two children, three beautiful grandchildren, and the rest of our extended family back home,” Tillis said in a statement June 29.
“It’s not a hard choice.”
–Savannah Kuchar
Senate’s marathon vote-before-the-vote is underway
Senators have officially kicked off what will be an hours-long series of votes, known in Washington lingo as a vote-a-rama, on amendments to Trump’s mega bill.
The marathon prefaces a final vote on the legislation package, expected sometime July 1.
Typical vote-a-ramas see a bevy of amendment proposals from the opposing party, and Democrats appear poised to raise their share this time around.
However, some Republicans, still wary about the bill as is, are expected to put their own amendments up for consideration as well.
–Savannah Kuchar
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DHS wins big in GOP bill
One House proposal the Senate didn’t touch: a plan to surge money to the Department of Homeland Security.
The parent agency of ICE and the Border Patrol stands to gain $169 billion under the current bill, more than doubling the department’s current budget of $68 billion.
The surge in resources would fund Trump’s mass deportation campaign, paying for thousands more deportation agents and new detention centers.
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It would also “provide ICE enough money to become by 2029 the largest interior federal law enforcement agency and the nation’s largest jailer,” said Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, senior fellow at the American Immigration Council.
The new money would give billions to state and local governments to work with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he said.
Among the DHS appropriations: $45.6 billion for a “big, beautiful wall,” as Trump likes to call the 30-foot steel border barriers erected at the U.S.-Mexico border.
Ron Johnson, R-Wisconsin, had previously called into question the need for so much money for border fencing. He said in May committee that, at an estimated $14 million a mile, DHS could build more than 3,000 miles of border fence with that kind of money.
The U.S.-Mexico border only runs 1,950 miles from California to Texas; roughly 700 miles of the border is already fenced off.
—Lauren Villagran
Trump warns Republicans against cutting too deep
As bleary senators worked through the massive GOP bill, Trump warned Republicans against going overboard on unpopular cuts.
The bill calls for $1.1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid and would cause 11.8 million people to lose health insurance, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Early on June 30, Trump urged caution, suggesting future economic growth would make up for deficits.
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“For all cost cutting Republicans, of which I am one, REMEMBER, you still have to get reelected,” he wrote on Truth Social. “Don’t go too crazy! We will make it all up, times 10, with GROWTH, more than ever before.”
–Dan Morrison
GOP, Democrats disagree over how many trillions bill adds to deficit
One of the first votes will determine the cost – at least for the legislative debate – of a centerpiece of the legislation: an extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts.
Senators are divided over how to count the projected $4 trillion cost of extending the cuts, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
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Republicans ignored that cost by arguing nobody expects the tax cuts to expire at the end of the year as scheduled. They contend the overall bill will reduce the federal debt $500 billion through economic growth.
Democrats challenged that interpretation, calling it “fake math.” But Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the chamber so they are expected to win the vote and the argument.
–Bart Jansen
Tillis won’t seek reelection after opposing Trump bill
Tillis announced June 29 he will not seek reelection in 2026, after Trump threatened to find a Republican primary opponent against him in North Carolina for opposing his legislative package.
“As many of my colleagues have noticed over the last year, and at times even joked about, I haven’t exactly been excited about running for another term,” Tillis said, adding that retiring in a divided time for the nation was “not a hard choice.”
Trump welcomed the decision.
“Great News! ‘Senator’ Thom Tillis will not be seeking reelection,” Trump said in a social media post.
–Bart Jansen
What’s in the bill?
Besides extending the 2017 tax cuts, Trump campaigned on provisions in the legislation to end taxes on tips for employees such as waiters through 2028 and for overtime pay. The Senate capped the deduction at $25,000 and weakened the break for individuals with income above $150,000.
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For border security, the bill would increase funding about $150 billion for the Department of Homeland Security. The bill authorizes $45 billion for new detention centers as Trump ramps up arrests and $27 billion for a mass deportation campaign.
A crucial provision would increase the amount the country can borrow by $5 trillion. The country’s debt is already approaching $37 trillion and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned the current limit on borrowing will be reached in August.
–Bart Jansen
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Live: Senate heads to final vote on Trump tax and Medicaid cuts
