Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) will not challenge New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) after considering a bid for months, likely clearing the way for Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) to become the GOP nominee if she follows through with her expected candidacy.
Lawler will instead seek reelection in his battleground House district where Democrats will seek to oust him as part of the party’s efforts to win back control of the House. Democrats, however, fell short in the district by more than 6 points last November.
Lawler is considered among the stronger candidates as one of the more moderate members of the GOP, giving some Republicans hope that he could have potentially pulled off an upset against Hochul in 2026.
But he told The New York Times that he wouldn’t run for the Empire State’s top elected job, though he still views himself as the best candidate to face Hochul.
“While I fundamentally believe I am best positioned to take on Kathy Hochul and offer New Yorkers a real choice for governor, I have made the decision to run for re-election to the House and continue the important work I’ve been doing over the past two and a half years,” he told the outlet.
Lawler had faced some pressure from the president to pass on a gubernatorial bid, with a person familiar with a private conversation between Trump and Lawler last week telling the Times that Trump made his preference clear.
Trump endorsed Lawler for reelection to his House seat in May in a Truth Social post that some observers believed hinted at his preference for Stefanik to become the Republican nominee.
The president hasn’t formally said he supports Stefanik running for governor, but she has been a close ally of his and was his choice to become United Nations ambassador before her nomination was pulled as the House GOP managed its narrow majority.
Lawler had previously said he would make his own decision about whether to run for governor regardless of Stefanik’s decision, just based on whether he saw a path to victory.
Democrats celebrated the decision and pointed to Trump’s influence.
New York State Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs said in a statement that Lawler “caving” to Trump shows he’s “too weak” to face Hochul.
The Democratic Governors Association called Lawler’s decision a “humiliating setback” for Republicans, arguing that his choice means he doesn’t believe a Republican can win statewide.
House Democrats’ campaign arm spokesperson Riya Vashi said “the only thing more embarrassing than Lawler’s failed fantasy campaign for governor is the brutal loss he’s about to face at home,” vowing to defeat him for reelection.
Early polls showed Stefanik comfortably ahead in a hypothetical Republican primary race with Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman also in the mix. Blakeman has also been considering a possible gubernatorial run but first faces his own reelection battle this year.
But Republicans now seem likely to avoid a hotly contested primary, as they said they hoped only one of Lawler or Stefanik would go forward with a gubernatorial run.
Stefanik seems all but certain to run for governor, with a source familiar with her thinking telling The Hill last month that “it’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when.”
Republicans have been hopeful that they could seriously compete for the office in 2026 after impressive performances in recent years. Hochul only won reelection in 2022 by about 6 points, a much closer margin than observers expected.
Trump also made significant gains in New York in last year’s presidential election, while still falling short by double digits of victory in the state.
Adding to Republican optimism has been Hochul’s struggles with her favorability rating, which has often been underwater over more than the past year. Early polling has shown Hochul well ahead of Stefanik in a hypotehtical general election matchup, though Hochul currently has much stronger name identification and many were undecided.
Democrats argue that Hochul is in a stronger position next year than when the party was taken by surprise in 2022 with the GOP’s improvement.
Lawler said in a post on X that serving his district has been the “greatest honor” of his life and he’s proud of the wins he’s delivered for his constituents and the country. He called Hochul the “worst Governor in America” and said she must be defeated in 2026.
But he said he wants to continue the work he’s doing in Washington.
“There’s more work ahead, and I remain focused on putting New York families first,” Lawler said.
Updated: 9:19 a.m. ET
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