The Las Vegas Raiders enter the 2026 offseason with the No. 1 overall pick and a chance to reset their franchise. But drafting a quarterback is only the first step—fixing the offensive line, overhauling the defense, and finding a cohesive coaching vision are equally critical to their rebuild.
The 2025 Season: A Year to Forget
The 2025 Las Vegas Raiders were a disaster by almost every metric. Finishing 3-14, they ranked 30th in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and posted the third-worst point differential in the NFL. The offense was particularly inept, leading the league in three-and-outs on a staggering 42% of drives. The offensive line failed to protect Geno Smith, who regressed sharply from his Seattle form, while rookie running back Ashton Jeanty—the No. 6 overall pick—was hit within a yard of the line of scrimmage on 54.1% of his carries, the third-highest rate among qualifying running backs.
Defensively, the Raiders weren’t much better. While they ranked 14th in defensive DVOA, their linebackers struggled in coverage, and the unit as a whole allowed opponents to dominate time of possession. The hiring of Pete Carroll was supposed to bring stability, but the experiment lasted just one season, leaving the franchise in search of a new head coach and a clear identity.
The No. 1 Pick: A Franchise Quarterback Awaits
With the first overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft, the Raiders have a golden opportunity to reset their franchise. The top prospect, Fernando Mendoza of Indiana, fits the bill perfectly. Mendoza combines accuracy, arm strength, pocket presence, and the athleticism to extend plays—a rare blend of traits that could make him the face of the Raiders for the next decade. For a team that has cycled through quarterbacks like Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Smith in recent years, landing a true franchise signal-caller is non-negotiable.
However, drafting a quarterback is only the first step. The Raiders must surround him with talent, starting with a complete overhaul of the offensive line.
Offensive Line: The Most Pressing Need
The Raiders’ offensive line was a sieve in 2025, ranking 31st in yards allowed before contact per carry. Outside of left tackle Kolton Miller, every position is a potential upgrade. The team must prioritize adding at least two starting-caliber linemen in free agency or the draft. Without a functional line, even a generational quarterback prospect like Mendoza will struggle to succeed.
Key free agents like Dylan Parham, who ranked 17th in pass block win rate among interior linemen per ESPN, could be retained, but the Raiders need more than incremental improvements. This unit must be rebuilt from the ground up.
Defensive Weaknesses: Linebacker and Secondary Depth
While the Raiders’ defense wasn’t a complete disaster, their linebackers were a glaring liability. Devin White, signed to a one-year deal, made plenty of tackles but was exposed in coverage, contributing to the team’s 29th-ranked DVOA against short-middle passes. The Raiders must address this position in free agency or the draft, ideally finding a modern linebacker who can cover tight ends and running backs in today’s pass-heavy NFL.
In the secondary, Eric Stokes was a bright spot, finishing fourth among cornerbacks in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap. However, the Raiders need more depth, especially if they plan to compete in an AFC West that features elite quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.
Cap Space and Key Decisions
The Raiders enter the offseason with nearly $75 million in effective cap space, the third-most in the league, per Over The Cap. However, with only 36 players under contract, much of that capital will go toward filling out the roster. Key decisions loom:
- Geno Smith’s Future: Releasing Smith would free up $8 million, but the bigger question is whether he fits into the Raiders’ long-term plans. Given his struggles in 2025, a fresh start at quarterback seems inevitable.
- Maxx Crosby’s Role: If the new coaching staff doesn’t view Crosby as a cornerstone, trading the star pass rusher could net additional draft capital and free up $30 million in cap space.
- Retaining Key Free Agents: Edge rusher Malcolm Koonce (13 pressures in the final three weeks) and kicker Daniel Carlson are among the notable players hitting the market.
Coaching Vision: The Brady-Spytek Era Begins
The Raiders’ front office, led by Tom Brady and general manager John Spytek, must nail their next head coaching hire. The 2025 season exposed a lack of cohesion between the front office and coaching staff, with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly fired midseason. The new head coach must align with Brady’s vision for the franchise, particularly in developing the No. 1 overall pick and maximizing the potential of young skill players like Jeanty and wide receiver Tre Tucker.
As Matt Harmon of Yahoo Sports notes, “The most important box to check is that they identify the correct offensive architect to lead the coaching staff and develop the eventual No. 1 overall pick at quarterback.” Without a unified plan, even the best draft picks will flounder.
Fantasy and Betting Implications
For fantasy football managers, the Raiders’ offseason moves will be critical. If they land Mendoza and surround him with weapons, players like Jeanty and Tucker could see their stock rise. However, the offensive line’s performance will dictate whether any Raiders skill player can be trusted in fantasy lineups.
From a betting perspective, the Raiders’ 3-14 record in 2025 was brutal, but they did cover the spread in 8 of 17 games, per Yahoo Sports. If they make the right moves this offseason, they could be a sneaky bet to improve in 2026—though contention remains a distant goal.
The Path Forward
The Raiders’ 2026 offseason is about more than just drafting a quarterback. It’s about rebuilding a culture, fixing the trenches, and establishing a clear identity. With the right moves, Las Vegas could lay the foundation for sustained success. But if they whiff on their coaching hire or fail to address the offensive line, another lost season could be on the horizon.
For Raiders fans, the message is clear: Patience is required. This rebuild won’t happen overnight, but with the No. 1 pick and ample cap space, the tools for a turnaround are there.
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