The Los Angeles Lakers have surged to a 12-1 record over their last 13 games, powered by a top-10 defense, but a historic drought in opponent three-point shooting suggests unsustainable luck is amplifying their gains.
The Lakers’ resurgence is undeniable. Entering Monday’s road game against the Pistons, Los Angeles had won 12 of its previous 13 contests, including a nine-game winning streak, largely attributed to a defensive revolution that saw the team rank seventh in defensive rating during that span.
This transformation is rooted in tangible schematic and effort-based gains as confirmed by defensive analytics. The Lakers have tightened perimeter defense, enhanced on-ball containment on drives, and exhibited heightened collective energy through multiple-effort plays. Their shifts and off-ball presence are more cohesive, reflecting increased buy-in under first-year coach JJ Redick.
Redick emphasized the progress in defensive execution, noting that while opponents previously overshot threes against LA, improved contesting and drive containment have changed the dynamic. “As a guy on the ball, I know because I played, when you have confidence that you have a low man and you have confidence that you have everybody in their proper shift position, it gives you more confidence to guard the basketball,” he explained in a recent interview.
However, a deeper statistical dive reveals an asterisk: opponents are experiencing an unprecedented cold spell from three-point range. During the Lakers’ first 58 games, foes shot 36.6% from deep—a mark that tied for seventh-highest in the league. Over the subsequent 13 games, that percentage collapsed to 30.3%, the lowest in the NBA during that period. This shift slashed opponent three-point scoring from 40.2 to 31.8 points per game.
The luck is particularly pronounced on open attempts. Opponents combined to shoot 37.4% on “open” (4-6 feet of space) and “wide open” (6+ feet of space) threes in the first 58 games, but that plummeted to 31.4% in the last 13. While better defensive contests contribute, such a drastic regression is statistically improbable to persist.
This dual reality—real defensive growth coupled with anomalous shooting misfortune for opponents—defines the Lakers’ current identity. They have maintained an above-average defensive rating since January 18, yet they remain one of the league’s worst teams at protecting the rim, making the three-point luck a crucial crutch.
Offensively, Luka Doncic has been the constant engine, earning Western Conference Player of the Week honors for the second consecutive time. He averaged 42.3 points on 50% shooting (39% from three), alongside 6.8 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and three steals in four wins last week—his fourth Player of the Week award this season, which strengthens his MVP candidacy amid the Lakers’ rise.
Injury concerns loom. Starting guard Marcus Smart (right ankle soreness) and reserve forward Rui Hachimura (right calf soreness) were downgraded to unavailable against the Pistons as reported. Conversely, big man Maxi Kleber returned from a lumbar back strain, offering rotational depth.
For fans, this sparks intense debate: can the Lakers sustain this defensive pace without the three-point luck? Their playoff positioning hinges on this question. The defensive improvements are sustainable in effort and scheme, but the rim protection holes could be exposed if opponent shooting normalizes. The combination of Doncic’s brilliance and Redick’s system has forged a winner, but regression to the mean on threes could test their newfound resilience.
This season encapsulates a Lakers team evolving yet vulnerable—a squad that has gotten better but has also run remarkably hot. As the postseason approaches, balancing skill and fortune will determine whether this surge translates to championship contention.
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