The Atlanta Hawks, after trading Trae Young, are projected to select Illinois guard Keaton Wagler with the seventh overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, per the latest Tankathon lottery projection and USA TODAY’s mock draft.
March Madness is in full swing, but the 2026 NBA Draft picture is already taking shape, with Illinois star Keaton Wagler emerging as a focal point. According to the latest projections, the Atlanta Hawks will use their valuable first-round pick—acquired in the Trae Young trade—to select the dynamic guard at No. 7 overall. This move signals a clear strategic pivot for Atlanta as they begin a new chapter.
Why the Hawks’ Pick Makes Sense
The Hawks’ decision to move on from Trae Young left a glaring void at point guard. Wagler projects as one of the best shooters in the 2026 class, a cerebral playmaker who can immediately spaced the floor. His 40.2% three-point shooting this season addresses Atlanta’s long-standing need for perimeter reliability. With the franchise in a rebuild, adding a young, cost-controlled talent like Wagler accelerates the timeline and defines their post-Young identity.
Wagler’s Collegiate Dominance
Wagler’s résumé is built on consistent excellence. As the Big Ten Rookie of the Year, he has delivered spectacular performances, including a 46-point explosion against No. 12 Purdue on Jan. 24, where he shot 9-of-11 from three-point range. His all-around stats, as of March 15, underscore his versatility:
- Position: Guard
- Current Team: Illinois
- 17.9 points per game
- 4.8 rebounds per game
- 4.4 assists per game
- 44.6% field goal percentage
- 40.2% three-point field goal percentage
These numbers, compiled against top-tier competition, validate his top-10 draft stock.
Hawks’ Draft Asset Arsenal
Atlanta enters the draft with multiple first-round picks, a luxury that provides flexibility. Based on the Tankathon lottery projection, they are slated to hold the No. 7 pick (via New Orleans), No. 22 pick (via Cleveland), and No. 57 pick (via Boston). The seventh pick, in particular, is a high-value asset that they are now projected to use on Wagler, integrating his skill set with young talents already on the roster.
Connecting the Dots: From Trae Young to Wagler
The Trae Young trade was a bold reset for the Hawks, sending their star guard to the Pelicans in exchange for draft capital. That package now includes this seventh pick, making Wagler’s projection a direct consequence of that deal. It represents a philosophical shift—from building around a high-usage scorer to constructing a more balanced, three-point oriented offense. Wagler’s 41.0% clip from deep (as noted in analysis) and his 4.3 assists per game suggest he can fit alongside ball-handlers or operate as a primary creator, offering scheme versatility that Young’s departure necessitated.
Fan Buzz and Future Trajectory
Mock drafts ignite fan debates, and this projection fuels several narratives. Hawks believers see Wagler as the perfect modern guard to pair with athletic wings, while skeptics question if he can withstand NBA physicality. For Illinois fans, it’s validation of a program surge. The broader draft landscape remains fluid, but with the Tankathon lottery projection anchoring the pick order, and USA TODAY’s full mock draft aligning on Wagler’s fit, this scenario carries significant weight. The 2026 draft will ultimately reveal if Atlanta’s gamble pays off, but for now, Wagler’s stock is soaring.
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