With their championship window rapidly closing, the Los Angeles Clippers are banking on a healthy Kawhi Leonard and key veteran additions to overcome an aging roster and the cloud of an NBA investigation as they embark on the 2025-26 season.
The Los Angeles Clippers, a franchise founded in 1970, have long been a team searching for their breakout moment. Despite moving into their new home, the Intuit Dome, and being owned by the dynamic Steve Ballmer, a lingering sense of unfulfillment has defined their trajectory. Their recent history has been a high-stakes gamble, notably the acquisition of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in 2019, a move that cost them Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, five first-round picks, and two swaps.
This commitment was meant to usher in a new era of championship contention. As Lawrence Frank, the team’s President of Basketball Operations, stated upon Leonard’s signing, “This is a historic moment for our organization and our fans. We are grateful and honored that Kawhi Leonard has decided to come home and join the L.A. Clippers. Kawhi is a peerless two-way player, a relentless worker and a natural fit for the serious, professional culture our group has established. He wins everywhere he goes, and he always has… His expectation, and ours, is to contend for championships.”
The Elephant in the Room: The Aspiration Controversy
As the 2025-26 NBA season dawns, the Clippers find themselves under a cloud, specifically an ongoing league investigation into the “Aspiration controversy.” This financial storyline centers on allegations that the team circumvented the NBA’s salary cap by setting up Kawhi Leonard with what has been described as a “no-show job” that would effectively pay him up to $48 million off the books. Investigative journalist Pablo Torre has brought these details to light, reporting on figures within the NBA who have shared “genuine concern” over the league’s handling of the situation.
The controversy stems from an alleged $48 million aspiration deal, where sponsorship money and team investments reportedly blurred into one headline-grabbing mess. This complex situation has triggered an NBA review that could reshape how team partnerships are handled across the league. Despite the immense pressure, Kawhi Leonard has consistently maintained a steady demeanor, stating during media day, “The NBA is going to do their job. None of us did no wrongdoing. That’s it. We invite the investigation…it’s not going to be a distraction for me or my team.” While Leonard asserts it won’t be a distraction, the league office views it differently.
The stakes are incredibly high, as potential penalties under Article XIII of the CBA could range from fines and draft pick losses to even contract voiding. This investigation is expected to take months to settle, reportedly extending past the 2026 All-Star break, which the Clippers are set to host. For more details on the reported financial arrangements, Yahoo Sports delved into the specifics of the alleged “no-show job” and the ongoing investigation here.
Offseason Moves and Roster Dynamics
The Clippers finished the 2024-25 season with a respectable 50-32 record, placing fifth in the Western Conference before a first-round exit to the Denver Nuggets. Their defensive prowess was a highlight, ranking 3rd in defensive rating, though their offensive rating stood at 15th. This offseason, the team made significant moves to bolster their lineup:
- Additions: Chris Paul, Bradley Beal, Brook Lopez, John Collins, Yanic Konan Niederhäuser, Kobe Sanders
- Subtractions: Norman Powell, Amir Coffey, Ben Simmons, Drew Eubanks, Patty Mills, Seth Lundy
The return of “prodigal son” Chris Paul, who was still highly effective last season with Victor Wembanyama in San Antonio, adds a veteran playmaking presence. Bradley Beal joins the team in search of redemption after a challenging tenure with the Phoenix Suns, while John Collins aims for meaningful games after two years in Utah. These players are expected to add offensive firepower and versatility to a squad that showed significant improvement offensively after Leonard’s mid-season debut.
The addition of Brook Lopez, a stretch-5, offers valuable floor-spacing and a pick-and-pop partner for playmakers like James Harden and Paul. Crucially, Lopez can help maintain defensive organization when All-Defensive Team center Ivica Zubac is off the court. Last season, the Clippers‘ defense notably declined without Zubac, conceding 6.9 more points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass. With holdovers like Nicolas Batum, Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., and the currently injured Bogdan Bogdanović, coach Tyronn Lue now commands a rotation that can go a “legit 11 deep.”
The Age Factor and Kawhi’s Health
One undeniable characteristic of this Clippers roster is its age. They are, in fact, an historically old team, a detail extensively covered by Tom Haberstroh and others. Historically, teams with an average age over 30 have struggled to maintain momentum through the grueling NBA season and deep into the playoffs. The 2013 Miami Heat were the last over-30 team to win a title, and most championship contenders since have had a minutes-weighted age below 29.
The most critical factor for the Clippers remains Kawhi Leonard’s health. His career has been marked by significant injury absences; since joining the Clippers in 2019, he has appeared in just 58% of possible games. However, a significant positive for the 2025-26 season is that Leonard entered training camp healthy and is participating in the preseason, a stark contrast to his 2024-25 season debut which didn’t occur until after New Year’s Day. Leonard specifically trained through June to keep his “body strong and durable,” as he revealed, preparing himself for the “pounding” of a full season. This commitment to early training signals his awareness of the team’s urgency.
When Leonard was on the floor last season, the Clippers performed at a 58-win pace and boasted the point differential of a 66-win team, according to Cleaning the Glass. His presence is transformative. As reported by The Athletic, Leonard confirmed he would be participating in the preseason, stating, “Yeah. For sure. This is what training camp is for. To get in shape and get ready for the season. I think we are gonna be participating on Thursday.” This commitment is a welcome sign for a fan base eager for a deep playoff run. You can find more details on his preseason participation via The Athletic here.
2025-26 Season Outlook: Best-Case vs. Worst-Case Scenarios
The Clippers open their season on October 22 at Utah, facing an over/under win total of 48.5. Given Tyronn Lue’s ability to secure 50 wins last season despite Kawhi Leonard’s extended absence, and with significant veteran upgrades, betting the over seems like a reasonable take for many analysts.
Best-Case Scenario:
An utterly unfazed and unbothered Kawhi Leonard plays 70 games for the first time since his San Antonio Spurs days, performing at an All-NBA First Team level. This allows everyone else to comfortably settle into their complementary roles. James Harden continues to be one of the league’s premier orchestrators, with Chris Paul ably stepping in as an understudy in his absence. Bradley Beal and John Collins find their rhythm and contribute significantly. Everyone else embraces their role, and Tyronn Lue masterfully manages minutes and rotations. The Clippers win 55 games, secure a top-two seed in the Western Conference, and with a healthy Kawhi leading the charge, finally advance to the Western Conference Finals, and perhaps beyond.
Worst-Case Scenario:
The nightmare scenario begins with Kawhi Leonard succumbing to injuries once again, triggering a cascade of issues. Bradley Beal, seeking to make his mark, adopts a shot-heavy approach that disrupts the team’s offensive flow. The historically old roster lives up to its statistical predisposition, with multiple veteran players missing significant time due to bumps and bruises, offering little respite from the end-of-the-bench youngsters. Tyronn Lue’s press conferences begin to carry an air of existential dread as he struggles to coach a team constantly missing key pieces. The defense splinters, the offense sputters, and the Clippers ultimately miss the playoffs entirely. To compound matters, the NBA announces the results of its investigation into the “Aspiration controversy,” delivering severe sanctions against the organization and its personnel, potentially impacting owner Steve Ballmer and the franchise’s long-term outlook.
The 2025-26 season is truly a now-or-never moment for the Los Angeles Clippers. With a new arena, an expensive roster filled with aging stars, and the shadow of an NBA investigation looming, the franchise stands at a critical juncture. Kawhi Leonard’s commitment to durability, combined with shrewd veteran additions, provides a glimmer of hope. However, the path to an elusive championship will demand not only exceptional on-court performance but also resilience in the face of significant off-court scrutiny. All eyes will be on the Intuit Dome to see if this is the year the Clippers finally break through, or if their bold ambitions crumble under the weight of expectation and controversy.
