Claims by some Democrats — that phantom millions of stay-at-home progressives may have cost former Vice President Kamala Harris the presidency — fell apart in light of a new analysis.
A new Pew Research study released Thursday shows Harris would have been clobbered even harder — not rescued — by high turnout. (RELATED: More Voters Deciding They’d Rather Be Called Anything But A Democrat)
“When asked how they would have voted, people eligible to vote who did not do so were fairly evenly split in their preferences: 44% say they would have supported Trump, while 40% say they would have backed Harris,” the study states.
Conversely during the 2020 election, nonvoters favored former President Joe Biden by 11%, according to Pew.
The 2024 numbers paint a picture of apparent political realignment — one that undermines a once long-held belief that higher turnout helps the Democratic Party. Disengaged voters, Pew’s analysis shows, are not Democrat-curious idealists held back by voter ID laws, but instead people who largely either drifted right or stayed home in indifference.
In the 2024 race, voter participation hit 64% — the second-highest rate since 1960 — yet 26% of eligible adults still haven’t cast a ballot in any of the last three national contests, a cohort that skews younger and less likely to have college degrees.
Furthermore, Trump carried 40% of Asian voters, 48% of Hispanics and 15% of black voters, expanding his multi-ethnic coalition, Pew’s study shows. Among men under 50, a group that voted for Biden by 10 percentage points in 2020, Trump prevailed over Harris by one point, the report shows. (RELATED: EXCLUSIVE: Most Hispanic Voters Back Trump Deportation Policy Amid Anti-ICE Riots, Poll Shows)
Eighty-nine percent of Trump’s 2020 voters showed up again, versus 85% of Biden’s. Harris also bled support among those who skipped 2020 but voted in 2024. Of these voters, 54% went for Trump and 42% for the unsuccessful Democratic nominee. Among registered Democrats who did stay home, barely seven in ten said they would have backed Harris anyway, according to a separate New York Times analysis — a loyalty gap Trump did not suffer with Republicans.
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