The July jobs report is expected to show hiring slowed during the month while the unemployment rate moved higher. The data’s release will come as investors closely watch for any further signs of slowing in the US labor market amid growing debate over when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics data is slated for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 105,000 in July and the unemployment rate to have moved up to 4.2%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
In June, the US economy added 147,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.
Here are the key numbers Wall Street is expecting Friday, according to data from Bloomberg:
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Nonfarm payrolls: +105,000 vs. +147,000 in June
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Unemployment rate: 4.2% vs. 4.1%
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Average hourly earnings, month over month: +0.3% vs. +0.2%
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Average hourly earnings, year over year: +3.8% vs. +3.7%
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Average weekly hours worked: 34.2 vs. 34.2
“In our view, the labor market is moderating rather than deteriorating,” BofA US economist Shruti Mishra wrote in a note to clients. “Elevated inflation should still keep the Fed on hold.”
The latest labor market data will be released just two days after the Federal Reserve opted to hold interest rates steady at its July meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the labor market as “solid” and pointed to a “historically low” unemployment rate as a key metric to watch when assessing the health of the jobs picture in America.
Powell admitted job creation has shown slowing, but that has come with a decrease in labor supply due to less immigration, therefore keeping the broad labor market picture in balance.
Recent data has reflected signs of this slowing. On Wednesday, data from ADP showed private payrolls grew by 104,000 in July, above the 75,000 expected by economists and a rebound from the 23,000 job losses seen in June. But as the chart below shows, overall hiring momentum has slowed in the private sector in recent months.
“We are in a labor market that has recalibrated to a lower average level,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson told Yahoo Finance on a call with reporters. “The good news here is that that level is still solid enough to support the consumer, and that ultimately will be the tried-and-true test of the health of the labor market. Will consumers keep spending?”
Elsewhere in labor market data, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.44 million jobs open at the end of June, a decrease from the 7.71 million seen the month prior. The hiring rate ticked lower to 3.3% from the 3.4% seen the month prior and stood at its lowest level since November 2024.
“The June JOLTS report painted a familiar picture of the labor market: hiring remains quite low, but so do layoffs,” Oxford Economics lead US economist Nancy Vanden Houten wrote in a research note following the release. “This will allow the Federal Reserve to keep policy steady as it waits for a clearer picture of how tariffs will impact inflation and growth.”
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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