JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned on Tuesday that encouraging economic data could soon turn worrisome as President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to bite.
“You’re going to see real numbers, and I think there’s a chance real numbers will deteriorate soon,” Dimon said, according to a FactSet transcript of the Morgan Stanley US Financial Conference in New York.
Trump’s tariffs have yet to really affect data like monthly inflation and jobs reports, but the economy is prone to a downturn if that changes, he said.
Wall Street has been eager for any sign the economy might muddle through the confusion stoked by Trump’s tariffs, even as tremendous uncertainty lingers. It will likely be a few months before the full impact of tariffs on business decisions, hiring and inflation show up.
Consumer sentiment and the stock market have both rebounded from peak uncertainty in early April, Dimon said, but it’s important to recognize that neither “consumer sentiment nor businesses” ever determine the key “inflection points” for how the economy is faring.
The hard data, like job growth and inflation, is what matters most, Dimon said.
“You haven’t seen an effect yet other than in the sentiment,” Dimon said. “And maybe in July, August, September, October, you’ll start to see, did it have an effect? My guess is it did, hopefully not dramatic.”
“Employment will come down a little bit. Inflation will go up a little bit,” Dimon said. “Hopefully, it’s just a little bit.”
The latest Consumer Price Index data showed inflation cooled more than expected in May. But Dimon said he’s worried about inflation and economic growth because Trump’s tariffs and deportations could change things.
He also added that lower immigration to the US could hurt the economy. “These are a lot of moving parts,” he said.
“The buts are real, and I am not trying to be negative,” Dimon said. “You have all these really complex moving tectonic plates around trade, economics, geopolitics.”
He added that the impact of tariffs might disrupt the economy but won’t make the “ship go down.”
“I’m not going to worry too much about those fluctuations, except the big ones, the military alliances, the global economic alliances that matter to the future of United States of America,” Dimon said.
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