Ivory Coast stands on the brink of a potentially transformative election as 83-year-old President Alassane Ouattara seeks a highly contentious fourth term. This move has ignited widespread frustration among the nation’s predominantly young population, who are grappling with persistent economic hardship and growing inequality despite the country’s status as an economic powerhouse. The election is unfolding against a backdrop of regional instability and concerns over democratic integrity, making it a pivotal moment for the future of West Africa.
The political landscape in Ivory Coast is currently dominated by an election scheduled for Saturday, October 25, 2025, where incumbent President Alassane Ouattara is vying for an unprecedented fourth term. This bid has sparked considerable unrest, particularly among the nation’s youth, who constitute over three-quarters of the population under 35. Their frustration stems from a disconnect between the country’s significant economic output and the daily struggles faced by ordinary citizens.
Placide Konan, a 33-year-old slam poet from the capital, Abidjan, has become a prominent voice for this discontent. Through his performances, Konan articulates the widespread sentiment that “people can no longer make ends meet.” Despite Ivory Coast being one of West Africa’s economic powerhouses and the world’s largest cocoa producer, it faces significant challenges, including growing inequality and a poverty rate of 37.5%.
A Contested Path to a Fourth Term
President Ouattara, who first came to power in 2011, is widely expected to win the upcoming election. His path has been cleared by the disqualification of key opposition figures, raising serious questions about the fairness of the electoral process. Notably, former Credit Suisse chief executive Tidjane Thiam was barred due to a local court ruling on his French nationality, a decision Thiam vehemently rejected as foul play. He subsequently renounced his French nationality in March, but the disqualification stood.
The current lineup of challengers includes Jean-Louis Billon, a former commerce minister, and Simone Gbagbo, a former first lady. However, their challenge is perceived as significantly weakened following the exclusions. This scenario aligns with a troubling pattern seen across the continent, where African long-term presidents often find themselves at odds with an increasingly vocal and young citizenry, as highlighted by a report from The Associated Press regarding these leadership trends. For more details on Ouattara’s specific bid, refer to The Associated Press’s report: Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara seeks a fourth term.
Ouattara’s Historical Grip on Power
President Ouattara’s tenure began after a brutal political crisis in 2010 and 2011, triggered by Laurent Gbagbo’s refusal to concede defeat, which resulted in the deaths of approximately 3,000 people. He secured a disputed third term in 2020 by arguing that a 2016 constitutional amendment reset his term limits to zero. This claim led to further unrest, with rights groups reporting nearly 100 deaths following his victory.
Critics argue that Ouattara maintains considerable control over the state apparatus. Séverin Yao Kouamé, a research professor at the University of Bouaké, points out that Ouattara “has almost exclusive control over the state apparatus” and has skillfully managed to overcome previous opposition. Despite calls to step down, Ouattara justifies his pursuit of a fourth term by citing the country’s “unprecedented security, economic and monetary” challenges. He has attempted to appeal to young voters, stating his commitment to “offering the best to our youth so that you can start businesses, work, learn and be independent.”
Economic Progress Amidst Youth Discontent
Ouattara’s supporters often highlight significant economic achievements under his leadership. The country experienced a robust 6% economic growth in 2024, according to the World Bank, as reported by The Associated Press. This growth has fueled a wave of infrastructure development, including an expanding commuter train line in Abidjan and improved roads in rural areas. The economy, once largely concentrated in Abidjan, is also showing signs of broader expansion.
Assita Karamoko, an Abidjan hairdresser and Ouattara supporter, describes the transformation: “If you left Côte d’Ivoire to live abroad for a few years and came back today, you would not recognize your neighborhood.” Yet, this economic progress has not translated into sufficient opportunities for the younger generation. As Paul Melly, a consulting fellow with the Africa program at Chatham House, observes, “it is still very hard to translate all of these into enough more jobs for young people. In terms of youth employment and business opportunity, there is still a long way to go.”
Security Challenges and Regional Instability
Beyond economic concerns, security remains a critical issue for Ivory Coast. The nation shares its northern borders with Mali and Burkina Faso, two countries heavily impacted by conflict and led by military juntas. The breakdown of security cooperation with the regional bloc due to these junta-led governments has put Ivory Coast under immense pressure to prevent the infiltration of armed groups into coastal West Africa.
Despite the Ivorian military being one of the most sophisticated in the region, the increasing instability among its neighbors means greater challenges ahead. Melly emphasizes that while the fragile and exposed security conditions in the north are “not the fault of the Ivorian government,” they represent “the reality of the regional situation.”
The Shadow of Violence and Undermined Stability
The upcoming election is marked by significant concerns regarding potential violence, a common feature of past electoral cycles in Ivory Coast. Approximately 8.7 million people are registered to vote, but the disqualification of opposition leaders has already triggered protests. Authorities have responded by attempting to block demonstrations, leading to hundreds of arrests and some protesters receiving prison sentences. The government has also imposed restrictions on public gatherings and deployed over 40,000 security personnel, with at least three people killed in the unrest.
Critics argue that the government has used legal provisions to weaken the opposition and allege unfairness in the final candidate list, although the president denies targeting his opponents. These recent events “undermine stability at a time when (Ivory Coast), like other countries in West Africa, faces big challenges,” states Paul Melly. The current political climate in Ivory Coast is a stark reminder of the delicate balance between economic development, political freedom, and social stability in a region grappling with complex governance and security issues, echoing broader patterns of leadership and popular discontent across Africa, as further explored by The Associated Press: A pattern of African long-term presidents.
