Iowa State enters the NCAA Tournament as a No. 2 seed with a potent offense led by the nation’s top three-point shooter and an elite defense, riding a wave of confidence after dominant Big 12 Tournament performances and determined to overcome past March disappointments.
When T.J. Otzelberger looks at his Iowa State Cyclones, he sees a team that has weathered a storm and emerged stronger just in time for March Madness. After a mid-February skid threatened to derail their season, the Cyclones have erupted with two statements in the Big 12 Tournament: a 49-point demolition of Arizona State AP News and a 22-point victory over Texas Tech AP News. Even a buzzer-beating loss to top-seeded Arizona in the semifinals AP News couldn’t dim the glow. Otzelberger now believes this is a Final Four-caliber squad, and the numbers support him.
The Cyclones (27-7) earned a No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region, their third straight top-three seed—a mark of sustained excellence AP News. They open Friday against Ohio Valley Conference champion Tennessee State (23-9), a program in its first NCAA Tournament since 1994. BetMGM lists Iowa State as 25.5-point favorites, a reflection of the massive talent and experience gap.
The Veteran Core That March Demands
Experience isn’t just an advantage for Iowa State; it’s a cornerstone. Tamin Lipsey will play in his fourth NCAA Tournament, while Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson are in their third, and Nate Heise in his second. This core has been battle-tested, and they know what it takes to win in March. Momcilovic, whose 49.6% three-point shooting leads the nation, personifies the poise they need. “We don’t want to take it for granted,” he said, “and obviously we want to win as many games as possible.”
Jefferson, an AP All-Big 12 first-team selection AP News, is the engine: 16.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. His ability to impact every facet of the game makes Iowa State’s offense unpredictable and resilient. When combined with Momcilovic’s historic shooting, the Cyclones can score in bunches, as evidenced by their 49-point win over Arizona State.
An Elite Defense Forged in the Big 12 Fire
Iowa State’s defense is suffocating: they allow just 65.1 points per game and force 15.3 turnovers. This isn’t a coincidence; it’s the product of the Big 12’s relentless physicality. “The physicality of the Big 12 and the battle-tested nature of our team prepares you when you play against other teams and other conferences,” Otzelberger said. “I think that’s one of the great things about being in the Big 12, knowing it will either break you or you’ll be better for it.”
The Cyclones’ defensive intensity was on full display in Kansas City, where they held Arizona State and Texas Tech to well below their averages. That same intensity, if maintained, will trouble any opponent in the tournament. They also enter relatively healthy; Lipsey, who aggravated a groin injury in the Big 12 Tournament, is expected to play against Tennessee State, a crucial boost for their perimeter defense and leadership.
The Ghosts of March Past
This team carries the weight of recent tournament failures. In 2024, Iowa State fell behind Mississippi early and lost 91-78 in the second round AP News. In 2023, a similar slow start doomed them against Illinois in the Sweet 16, a 72-69 loss AP News. Both times, early double-digit deficits proved insurmountable.
Momcilovic hasn’t forgotten. “It sticks with me a lot just because the last two tournaments, how they ended was not the way I wanted,” he said. “That’s why we work hard in the summer and fall, for moments like this. I think that adds more fuel to the fire and hopefully we’ll come out and play well this tournament.” This motivation, paired with their current form, suggests they’ve built the mental toughness to avoid those pitfalls.
Why This Year Is Different
The Cyclones’ season arc tells a story of resilience. They erupted to a program-record 16-0 start, then endured a rocky patch with back-to-back road losses and a 3-of-4 skid in late February. But they closed the regular season with a 21-point win over Arizona State and carried that momentum into the Big 12 Tournament with two more blowouts. “Get out and run, play with pace, and our offense is going to run pretty well,” Jefferson said. “So we showed we can go back to the drawing board and fix what we need to fix.”
That ability to adjust and peak at the right time is the hallmark of a champion. With a veteran core, an AP All-Big 12 star, a nation-leading shooter, and a top-tier defense, Iowa State has the pieces. Otzelberger’s confidence isn’t just motivational speech; it’s a calculation based on what he’s seen. If they bring the energy and execution from those two tournament wins, the Cyclones have the formula to cut down the nets in San Antonio.
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