Indiana’s historic CFP title run wasn’t a fluke—sportsbooks still believe in the Hoosiers, listing them as co-favorites for 2026-27 alongside Ohio State, despite losing QB Fernando Mendoza to the NFL. Here’s why the underdog story could have another chapter.
The Mendoza Effect: Can Indiana Reload?
Fernando Mendoza’s departure as the projected No. 1 NFL Draft pick leaves a void, but Indiana’s +700 odds (tied with Ohio State at DraftKings) suggest sportsbooks see more than a one-hit wonder. The Hoosiers’ defense, which stifled Miami’s high-powered offense in the title game, returns seven starters, including All-American linebacker Marcus Cole. Their offensive line, a unit that allowed just 12 sacks all season, remains intact.
History favors programs that build sustained success. Since the CFP’s inception, only Clemson (2016, 2018) and Alabama (2015, 2017, 2020) have won multiple titles within three years. Indiana’s odds imply they’re on that trajectory—a bold bet on culture over star power.
Ohio State’s Redemption Tour
The Buckeyes, co-favorites at +700 (DraftKings) and +650 (FanDuel), are hunting their first title since 2021. With QB Kyle McCord returning for his senior season and a defense that ranked top-5 in scoring in 2025, Ohio State’s path is clearer. Their biggest hurdle? Beating Indiana in the regular season—a task they failed in 2025’s 31-24 upset loss.
The Snub That Fuels Notre Dame
FanDuel’s +650 odds for Notre Dame reflect the lingering outrage over their 2025 CFP exclusion. The Fighting Irish, led by Heisman finalist RB Javier Rodriguez, outscored opponents by an average of 24 points in 2025. Their schedule—featuring road games at Ohio State and Indiana—could either cement their contender status or expose them as pretenders.
Longshots and Dark Horses
Beyond the favorites, the odds reveal intriguing narratives:
- Texas (+750 at FanDuel): QB Quinn Ewers‘s final season could deliver the Longhorns’ first CFP title.
- Oregon (+850 at DraftKings): With Big Ten newcomer status, the Ducks’ speed could disrupt traditional powers.
- Miami (+2000 at DraftKings): After their title game loss, the Hurricanes’ transfer portal hauls (including former Georgia QB Carson Beck) make them a wild card.
Why Indiana’s Odds Defy Logic
No team has ever repeated as CFP champions with a new starting QB. Yet Indiana’s +700 odds suggest:
- Coaching Stability: Curt Cignetti’s scheme maximizes talent—his 2025 offense ranked 3rd in third-down conversions (52%).
- Transfer Portal Wins: Former Alabama WR DeVonta Smith Jr. (son of the 2020 Heisman winner) is a breakthrough candidate.
- Schedule Luck: Avoiding Ohio State and Notre Dame in the regular season gives Indiana breathing room.
Fan Reactions and the Underdog Narrative
Social media erupted at Indiana’s odds, with fans split between “disrespect” and “overrated.” The truth? The Hoosiers’ 2025 run wasn’t luck—it was a blueprint. Their 2026 roster, while unproven at QB, boasts 18 returning contributors from a team that outgained opponents by 1,200+ yards last season.
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