Goldman Sachs analysts scrutinized President Donald Trump’s social media posts for oil price insights.
They said Trump’s posts showed a correlation with oil prices.
The analysts said Trump seemed to prefer US oil prices in the $40 to $50 a barrel range.
President Donald Trump’s social media posts have long gripped global markets. Now, even Goldman Sachs commodity analysts are scrutinizing them for clues to his views on oil prices.
In an analysis of Trump’s social media posts on Twitter and Truth Social, Goldman’s analysts concluded that the president appears to favor West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil in the $40 to $50 barrel range.
They wrote that Trump’s “propensity to post about oil prices bottoms” when prices are in this price range.
US oil futures are now trading at about $63 a barrel — well above Trump’s apparent comfort zone.
The analysts reviewed more than 1,000 posts from 16 years to identify patterns in Trump’s thinking on oil. Energy market-related topics accounted for just over 1% of Trump’s social media posts.
“President Trump has always been focused on energy markets, oil, and on US energy dominance, having posted nearly 900 times about energy markets since he joined Twitter in 2009,” wrote Goldman Sachs analysts in a Tuesday report.
Lower energy prices are one of Trump’s campaign promises, as higher oil prices drive inflation.
However, Trump also has a “drill, baby, drill” agenda that aims to boost US energy dominance and increase the country’s fossil fuel production.
“The President wants lower oil prices for American families, which is why he signed several executive orders to unleash American energy and reduce costs,” White House spokesperson Harrison Fields told Business Insider.
“The Trump Administration is focused on driving innovation and eliminating unnecessary regulations to both lower operating costs and increase production.”
Trump tends to call for lower prices — or celebrate declining prices — when WTI prices move above $50 a barrel, wrote the analysts at Goldman.
“President Trump has called for higher prices when prices are very low (WTI<$30), often in the context of supporting US production,” they added.
Goldman estimates average breakeven prices for US shale producers at $51 a barrel.
While Trump seems to like lower prices for consumers, he likely wouldn’t want prices so low that they hurt American oil producers.
“We believe several policymakers recognize the tendency for US oil supply growth to slow down when WTI prices drop into the $60s and approach the breakeven price of numerous producers,” they added.
To be sure, Goldman analysts expect Trump’s impact on global oil production to be limited in the short term. Furthermore, US regulatory easing may also only boost production significantly over the longer term.
However, “Trump’s inferred preference for relatively low oil prices directionally supports our view that oil prices are likely to edge lower in 2025-2026,” they wrote.
Price pressure
Goldman forecast the WTI oil price to average $56 a barrel for the rest of 2025 and $52 in 2026.
Oil prices have been under pressure this year due to recession fears, fueled by Trump’s trade war and OPEC’s plans to boost output.
A Department of Energy spokesperson told BI that Trump’s agenda to lower the cost of oil and gas production in the US will ultimately lead to lower average prices, as well as lower profits for producers.
“While prices are going to move up and down in the short term, the Trump administration is focused on changing policies, changing the investment climate for businesses in this country,” the spokesperson said.
WTI has risen about 9% over the past five trading days due to positive sentiment over the US’s trade deal with China. However, it is still about 12% lower this year.
Read the original article on Business Insider
