The rally to more than $3,000 an ounce is driven by growing demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions
Gold prices reached a record high on Thursday as investors spooked by mounting concerns over a global trade war seek safe-haven assets. The latest rally comes amid on-off tariff announcements by the US.
Import taxes on steel and aluminum imposed by US President Donald Trump took effect on Wednesday, sparking concerns in export-dependent Asia and prompting immediate retaliatory measures from the EU and Canada. Prior to the tariff imposition, Trump threatened to hike the levy on Canadian metals to 50%, but reversed the plan after Ontario Premier Doug Ford overturned his decision to introduce a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to several US states.
Gold futures for April delivery briefly hit $3,003.90 per ounce Thursday night on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) before retreating to $2,989.50, marking the first time a contract has crossed the psychologically important $3,000 threshold. Prices for the precious metal are up nearly 14% so far this year after making a solid 27% gain in 2024.
“The risk-off market stance reflects investors’ expectations that trade tensions are likely to get worse before it cools, and are turning to safe-haven gold once again as a hedge against portfolio volatility,” IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said, as cited by Reuters.
Apart from concerns related to global trade tensions, analysts attribute the latest rally in gold prices, an asset preferred by investors amid geopolitical and economic turmoil, to bets on monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve. The regulator is expected to keep its key interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range at the meeting scheduled for next Wednesday.
“The potential impact of the tariff and trade threats are impossible to model, forcing the Fed to gauge economic data to help it determine its next move,” John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, told the news agency, adding that analysts “believe the Fed is stuck in a wait-and-see state.”
Gold prices reached 40 record highs in 2024, driven by increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, uncertainty regarding the outcome of the US presidential elections, interest rate cuts, and active gold purchases by major central banks, according to a survey by the World Gold Council.
In the latest analysis of volatility across commodity markets, the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, Bart Melek, stated that central banks have seen record buying of gold in recent years due to concerns about the sustainability of dollar purchasing power and geopolitical tensions between major economic powers.
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