George Springer’s pivotal three-run home run in the seventh inning of Game 7 of the 2025 ALCS didn’t just clinch a 4-3 victory for the Toronto Blue Jays over the Seattle Mariners; it carved out a significant place in baseball history. This monumental blast now ranks as the eighth most impactful non-World Series play since 1903, according to Baseball Reference’s Championship Win Probability Added (cWPA) metric.
The echoes of George Springer’s latest heroics on October 20, 2025, are still reverberating through the Toronto Blue Jays fan base. His three-run shot against the Seattle Mariners, securing a crucial 4-3 win in the deciding Game 7 of the American League Championship Series, has rightly earned him a permanent place in Blue Jays lore. While it may not carry the ultimate weight of Joe Carter’s 1993 World Series-clinching homer or Dave Winfield’s 1992 extra-inning double, its profound impact on the team’s World Series chances is undeniable.
For fans of detailed analytics and historical context, the real story lies in the numbers. This specific home run increased Toronto’s chance of winning the World Series by a staggering 19.73%, a figure that places it firmly among the most significant non-World Series plays in baseball history.
Understanding Championship Win Probability Added (cWPA)
At the heart of this historical ranking is the Championship Win Probability Added (cWPA) statistic, developed and published by Baseball Reference. This advanced metric doesn’t just measure a play’s immediate impact on a game’s outcome; it quantifies how much a particular moment in a game increased or decreased a team’s overall chance of winning that year’s World Series. It factors in when the play occurred within the game, and how critical that game was in the broader context of the entire season and playoff run.
For dedicated fans, cWPA provides a fascinating lens through which to analyze baseball’s most memorable moments, moving beyond anecdotal evidence to objective impact on a team’s ultimate goal. It offers a standardized way to compare plays across different eras and series.
Baseball’s Unsung Heroes: The Top 10 Non-World Series Plays
Springer’s latest entry into this exclusive club prompted a deeper dive into the other iconic plays that shaped pennant races and left indelible marks without the World Series trophy immediately on the line. Here’s a look at the full list, where drama and destiny converged:
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No. 10: Chris Chambliss’ Solo Homer (1976 ALCS Game 5)
With a cWPA of 18.77%, Chambliss’ walk-off solo homer in the bottom of the ninth gave the New York Yankees a 7-6 win over Kansas City in the deciding game of the 1976 ALCS. This best-of-five series finale ignited a legendary mob scene at Yankee Stadium, a testament to its raw emotional impact. -
No. 9: Cecil Cooper’s Two-Run Single (1982 ALCS Game 5)
Cecil Cooper’s seventh-inning, two-run single propelled the Milwaukee Brewers to a 4-3 lead against the California Angels in Game 5 of the 1982 ALCS. With a cWPA of 19.66%, this hit secured the pennant for Milwaukee after trailing the series 2-0, showcasing a dramatic comeback. -
No. 8: George Springer’s Three-Run Homer (2025 ALCS Game 7)
As mentioned, Springer’s bottom-of-the-seventh, three-run homer gave Toronto a 4-3 lead over Seattle with a cWPA of 19.73%. Similar to Cooper’s hit, this drive flipped a deficit into a lead in a winner-take-all game, earning extra points for erasing a multi-run deficit.
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No. 7: Manny Trillo’s Two-Run Triple (1980 NLCS Game 5)
Manny Trillo’s two-out, two-run triple in the top of the eighth gave the Philadelphia Phillies a 7-5 lead against the Houston Astros. Despite Houston tying the game, the Phillies eventually won 8-7 in 10 innings, highlighting the immense value of those two runs, with a cWPA of 19.79%. -
No. 6: Jack Clark’s Three-Run Homer (1985 NLCS Game 6)
With first base open, the Los Angeles Dodgers pitched to Jack Clark, who made them pay with a two-out, three-run homer in the top of the ninth. This gave the St. Louis Cardinals a 7-5 lead and sent them to the World Series, narrowly avoiding a Game 7. Its cWPA was 19.83%, making it the only play on this list not in a winner-take-all game. -
No. 5: Yadier Molina’s Two-Run Homer (2006 NLCS Game 7)
Following a spectacular defensive play by Endy Chavez, Yadier Molina hit a two-run homer in the top of the ninth that gave St. Louis a 3-1 lead over the New York Mets. The Cardinals held on to win the pennant, and Molina’s blast registered a cWPA of 20.71%. -
No. 4: Rick Monday’s Solo Homer (1981 NLCS Game 5)
Rick Monday’s two-out solo homer in the top of the ninth secured a 2-1 lead for the Dodgers against the Montreal Expos in Game 5 of the 1981 NLCS. With a cWPA of 21.18%, this hit proved to be the game’s final scoring. -
No. 3: Johnny Bench’s Solo Homer (1972 NLCS Game 5)
The Pittsburgh Pirates were just three outs away from the World Series when Johnny Bench led off the bottom of the ninth with a solo homer for the Cincinnati Reds, tying Game 5 of the 1972 NLCS at 3. Cincinnati went on to score the pennant-winning run later that inning on a wild pitch, making Bench’s initial shot incredibly impactful with a cWPA of 22.52%. -
No. 2: Bobby Thomson’s Three-Run Homer (1951 NL Tiebreaker Game 3)
Known as the “Shot Heard ‘Round The World,” Bobby Thomson’s three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth gave the New York Giants a dramatic 5-4 victory over the Brooklyn Dodgers in Game 3 of a tiebreaker series. While technically considered a regular-season play, this winner-take-all game for a World Series berth saw Thomson’s team turn a two-run deficit into an instant win with a legendary swing, boasting a cWPA of 35.56%. This iconic moment is cemented in baseball history as a pinnacle of dramatic finishes, as detailed by MLB.com. -
No. 1: Francisco Cabrera’s Two-Run Single (1992 NLCS Game 7)
Holding the top spot with a cWPA of 36.84%, Francisco Cabrera’s two-out, two-run single in the bottom of the ninth secured a 3-2 victory for the Atlanta Braves over Pittsburgh in Game 7 of the 1992 NLCS. Cabrera, one of baseball’s unlikeliest heroes with only 11 regular-season plate appearances that year, delivered a hit that erased a significant deficit and came with two outs, just edging out Thomson’s legendary blast.
Springer’s Impact: A New Chapter in Blue Jays History
For Blue Jays fans, Springer’s homer is more than just a statistic; it’s a moment of pure exhilaration that reignited championship dreams. The comparison to franchise legends like Carter and Winfield speaks volumes about the perceived significance of this play. While those were World Series-winning moments, Springer’s blast represents a critical hurdle cleared, a definitive statement in a high-stakes, winner-take-all scenario.
The conversation among fans often revolves around which moments truly define a season or a franchise. By quantifying these plays with cWPA, we gain a deeper appreciation for the high-pressure, game-changing hits that propel teams toward their ultimate goal, even if they don’t happen in the final game of the year. George Springer’s 2025 ALCS heroics stand as a powerful reminder that some of baseball’s greatest drama unfolds just before the grandest stage.
