Editor’s note: This story is a part of a series by USA TODAY Sports called Project: June. We will publish at least one NFL-themed story every day throughout the month because fans know the league truly never sleeps.
The NFL is an ever-evolving organism, a key aspect of its runaway popularity at the top of the North American sports food chain.
Its schedule, draft and free agency are all engineered to underpin the parity that gives all fan bases fresh hope that this is the year … or at least that their teams can qualify for the postseason – at least four new entries have reached the playoffs (compared to the previous year’s field) in every season since 1990, when the Super Bowl tournament expanded to 12 teams, a figure that grew to 14 in 2020.
As my colleague Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz noted Monday, last season was just the third in the past 22 years when the league did not produce a division winner that had finished in last place the previous season. But I’ll be Negative Nate and offer a reminder that unforeseen failure is basically as likely as instant success.
Over the past decade, 10 teams have finished in last place (or tied for last place) the year after being crowned a divisional champion – basically one per season. Yet that frequency has grown since the start of the 2020 campaign, when six teams have gone from first to worst, including the San Francisco 49ers in 2024. In fact, the Niners were the third team since 2015 to go from conference champion to cellar dweller.
So which squads might suffer a similar spiral in 2025? We rank the penthouse-to-outhouse vulnerability of last season’s divisional rulers from least to most:
8. Buffalo Bills
What’s working for them: History. They replaced the New England Patriots as kings of the AFC East in 2020 and have run the division ever since. QB Josh Allen is the reigning MVP, and his flock of pass catchers should feature either improved or healthier players in 2025.
What’s working against them: RB James Cook wants a new contract, and there’s not a proven replacement behind him if he really decided to make an issue of it. After allowing 26 points per game over their final eight contests in 2024, the Bills heavily resourced their defense during the draft and free agency. But a unit that has incrementally slipped over the past four years must still prove that slide is over.
Bottom line: It remains to be seen if Buffalo can finally break through for the franchise’s first Lombardi Trophy. But there doesn’t appear to be a division in the league with a bigger gulf between its presumed favorite and remaining pretenders. The Bills should coast to a sixth consecutive AFC East ring, and a scenario − even one regrettably entailing an injury to Allen − that lands them in last place seems virtually inconceivable.
7. Philadelphia Eagles
What’s working for them: Over a single season anyway, the Super Bowl 59 champs were as good as any team this century. And, given the overall strength of this roster, there’s little reason to believe a significant drop-off is ahead – especially since NFL owners decided not to outlaw the “Tush Push” this spring.
What’s working against them: History. It’s been more than two decades since the NFC East’s last repeat champion. Philly owns the league’s fourth-hardest schedule (based on the opposition’s 2024 winning percentage), will need younger players to step into the breach at a few spots following some free-agent defections and has a first-time offensive coordinator in Kevin Patullo. The Washington Commanders and, perhaps, Dallas Cowboys could also be legitimate threats to overtake the Birds.
Bottom line: It wouldn’t be a shock if Philly falls from first place given the NFC East’s penchant for turnover at the top. It would be a shock if the Eagles miss the playoffs or – certainly – somehow find themselves looking up at the retooling New York Giants in the divisional table.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What’s working for them: History? The last time the Bucs didn’t capture the NFC South was 2020 … when they ultimately won Super Bowl 55. Theirs has been an underappreciated run, even if the division hasn’t exactly been a meat grinder lately. An already deep offense that ranked third overall in 2024 welcomed WR Emeka Egbuka in the first round. A defense that struggled to stop the pass drafted reinforcements for a secondary decimated by injuries and added pass rusher Haason Reddick in free agency.
What’s working against them: QB Baker Mayfield’s two best NFL seasons have come in Tampa, but unproven Josh Grizzard will be his fifth coordinator since 2022. However a team that allowed 385 points last season, its most since 2019, really needs the defense to rebound – and that will likely mean significant reliance on rookie DBs Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish, while veterans like Reddick and All-Pro S Antoine Winfield Jr. must revert to form.
Bottom line: Tampa Bay appears well positioned to defend its divisional dominance, though the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers could be ready to take a step up in class. But for the Bucs to land on the divisional rocks, they’ll have to go so far off course that they’re also overtaken by the rebuilding New Orleans Saints … which seems highly improbable.
5. Baltimore Ravens
What’s working for them: They’ve gone 25-9 while winning the AFC North the past two seasons. Baltimore boasts stars throughout its lineup yet is obviously headlined by All-Pro QB Lamar Jackson, perhaps the most feared player in the league. Yet the Ravens somehow signed DeAndre Hopkins to be their third wideout, while the draft may have netted immediate impact players in S Malaki Starks and OLB Mike Green.
What’s working against them: This is a veteran-laden team that will likely lean heavily on RB Derrick Henry, LT Ronnie Stanley, OLB Kyle Van Noy and Hopkins, who are all at least 30 years of age. TE Mark Andrews will join the list by the time the season kicks off. Jackson, 28, hasn’t always been the most durable guy yet he’s missed just one game over the past two seasons. After more than a decade of knowing K Justin Tucker would come through in the clutch of close games, the Ravens have not only moved on but are currently content to let an unproven rookie − Tyler Loop or John Hoyland – win that job. And, of course, this division is always a slugfest.
Bottom line: It would generally be fair to consider the Ravens the AFC’s version of the Eagles – loaded with talent and almost unfailingly in the postseason mix. And, like Philly, they’re likely to face two bona fide challengers to their divisional eminence. But how does Baltimore also fall behind a Cleveland Browns squad currently auditioning four guys for its open QB1 job? Seriously, how?
4. Kansas City Chiefs
What’s working for them: History. The last time K.C. failed to win the AFC West was 2015 … when QB Patrick Mahomes was a sophomore at Texas Tech. The Chiefs haven’t missed the AFC championship game in seven years and have only fallen short of the Super Bowl once in the past half dozen. And the offense certainly has the potential to be more explosive with greased lightning WR Xavier Worthy going into Year 2, when he should be flanked by the now-healthy duo of Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown.
What’s working against them: History? No team has reached the Super Bowl six times in a seven-season stretch – and the Chiefs’ dynastic run has put a lot of extra mileage on this roster over the years. Rice missed most of last season with a knee injury and still has consequences shadowing him after racking up eight felony charges while street racing in Dallas last year – though a suspension could be a year away as his legal proceedings continue to play out. Kansas City’s more immediate problem is reconstructing the left side of the offensive line after Mahomes was sacked a career-high 36 times in 2024 – which didn’t include the six times he was taken down in Super Bowl 59, the most he’d ever absorbed in an NFL game. The Chiefs were also one of three AFC West teams to reach the playoffs last season, and the one that didn’t – the Las Vegas Raiders – appears significantly improved heading into 2025.
Bottom line: Though it wasn’t always pretty – namely the Super Bowl loss to Philadelphia that dashed their historic three-peat dreams – the Chiefs did win a franchise record 15 games in 2024 and still have Mahomes, who’s probably already thrust himself onto the league’s Mount Rushmore of quarterbacks. Given what a murders’ row the AFC West has become, it’s feasible that Kansas City could fall off its throne. But, barring a major injury to Mahomes, hard to envision the Chiefs dropping very far.
3. Houston Texans
What’s working for them: Flawed as they could be, the Texans seemingly remain the class of a similarly flawed division they’ve won the past two seasons. And as unimpressive as they were for stretches in 2024, Houston still eventually advanced to the divisional playoff round – as it also did during the 2023 postseason. QB C.J. Stroud and HC DeMeco Ryans seem to be rising stars at their respective posts. An underappreciated defense could emerge as one of the league’s best.
What’s working against them: Hindered by his scheme, protection and injuries to his receivers, Stroud suffered something of a regression after earning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2023. Given that backdrop, maybe it’s actually a blessing that he’ll have a new coordinator and overhauled O-line. Still, this could be a work in progress early on – especially since the receiving corps behind Pro Bowler Nico Collins has also been revamped.
Bottom line: This is probably a good team fortuitously living in a questionable division – though the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars appeared to make significant gains this spring. And if the Indianapolis Colts can enjoy a resurrection behind whomever is their quarterback, the AFC South might be more competitive than expected – which would put the Texans at risk of a tumble after they went 5-1 in the division in 2024.
2. Detroit Lions
What’s working for them: Nobody had a better regular-season record (15-2) than they did in 2024. An offense that led the league with 564 points last season retains the on-field firepower to remain dominant. Speaking of dominant, the defense didn’t couldn’t be confused with that description a year ago – but maybe the story is different if star DE Aidan Hutchinson doesn’t break his leg in Week 6. His 7½ sacks still easily paced the Lions last season, and it seems like he should recapture his pre-injury form by Week 1.
What’s working against them: They’ve won 29 of their past 36 regular-season games and the past two NFC North crowns. But there’s no way to divorce that success from their departed coordinators, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, who both left for head coaching gigs in 2025. One of the league’s top offensive lines just watched perennial Pro Bowler Frank Ragnow opt for retirement. The Lions are also mired in a division that sent two other teams to the playoffs last year, while the third – the Chicago Bears, now led by offensive mastermind Johnson – is teeming with possibilities.
Bottom line: HC Dan Campbell and GM Brad Holmes have built a helluva roster here and maybe an even better culture – so it’s highly unlikely that the Lions simply bottom out despite significant alterations to the staff, which go beyond the notable departures of Johnson and Glenn. Yet the NFC North could quite reasonably wind up eating its own tail, with all four teams conceivably packed into, say, the nine-to-11 win range. If that outcome materializes, don’t be stunned if Detroit, which has the toughest schedule (.571 collective winning percentage in 2024 by its opponents) among defending division winners, winds up at the bottom of the heap.
1. Los Angeles Rams
What’s working for them: They wound up being the only team that posed a serious threat to the Eagles during the 2024 postseason. A year after Aaron Donald’s retirement, the defense has enjoyed a rennaisance with young quality and quantity – which is probably the only way to realistically replace a three-time Defensive Player of the Year. And the offense could take another step with reliable WR Davante Adams essentially replacing oft-injured Cooper Kupp.
What’s working against them: Just two-plus years ago, the Rams mounted the worst Super Bowl defense in league history – largely due to a rash of injuries. Now, QB Matthew Stafford is 37, Adams will turn 33 in December, and fellow WR Puka Nacua has a lengthy injury history going back to his college days. Recently extended LT Alaric Jackson, who missed nine games with blood clots during that 2022 campaign, is now coping with the same issue, putting his availability in some question. But while injuries have the potential to derail any NFL team, it must be noted that the Rams are also going to be part of a hotly contested division that could wind up being clinched by any of its four members.
Bottom line: There may not be a team in 2025 that seems to more legitimately have the potential to win the Super Bowl … or pick in the top five of the 2026 draft – though LA might do both given GM Les Snead obtained Atlanta’s Round 1 choice next year. Still, good as they are, the Rams will be quite dependent on aging veterans like Stafford, Adams, RT Rob Havenstein (33) and TE Tyler Higbee (32), among others. And with the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks seemingly on the rise and archrival 49ers positioned for a resurgence, the ingredients are there for a would-be Hollywood blockbuster to bomb.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ranking NFL teams’ odds of going first to worst in 2025 season
