By Howard Schneider
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, six days after President Donald Trump again demanded that the U.S. central bank cut borrowing costs during a rare presidential visit to its headquarters in Washington.
The steep reduction in the benchmark interest rate that Trump wants – he has suggested cutting it from the current 4.25%-4.50% range to as low as 1% – is far out of line with an economy that has hewn largely to a steady-as-it-goes trajectory in the six weeks since the Fed’s last meeting. Such dramatic rate cuts would likely boost inflation in the view of many economists and are more in line with what the central bank would do to lift the economy out of recession.
Trump’s demands, which have coincided with an unrelenting campaign of attacks by the president and administration officials on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, have made little impression on policymakers. Even rate-cut advocates on the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee favor a more traditional quarter-percentage-point cut at this week’s meeting, not the aggressive rate slashing embraced by the White House.
Even the modest rate cut appears to be a minority opinion, limited publicly so far to two Trump appointees to the Fed’s Board of Governors, Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman. There is speculation that Waller and Bowman could issue dissents if the Fed on Wednesday holds the policy rate steady for the fifth time since December.
More closely watched will be any clue in the wording of the Fed’s policy decision or in Powell’s post-meeting press conference about the possibility of a rate cut in September, a move consistent with both current market pricing of federal funds contracts and the median outlook Fed officials held as of June when they anticipated two quarter-percentage-point rate reductions by the end of the year.
The Fed is scheduled to release its policy statement at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), with Powell’s press conference following half an hour later.
PRESSURE CAMPAIGN
With inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target and the unemployment rate remaining low, it’s unclear how far the statement or Powell will go in providing guidance about the September 16-17 meeting, with two months of inflation and jobs data still to come before then.
“We expect the Fed to hold rates steady for the fifth straight meeting and largely maintain existing signals about the policy outlook,” Deutsche Bank economist Matthew Luzzetti and his colleagues wrote ahead of this week’s meeting. They said they anticipated both Bowman and Waller would dissent, marking the first time since 1993 that two Fed governors will have broken with the consensus.
“In terms of near-term policy, Powell is unlikely to remove a September rate cut from consideration nor intentionally raise the probability of that outcome. Instead, ahead of key data releases – including two more jobs and inflation reports – we expect he will continue to indicate the Fed’s data-dependent stance, which will entail making decisions on a meeting by-meeting basis,” the Deutsche Bank analysts said.
Policymakers have taken a “wait-and-see” approach to rate cuts since December, when Trump’s recent election victory and impending inauguration raised the possibility in the minds of many economists that what had been a steady decline in inflation might reverse, at least temporarily, if the administration followed through with its campaign promises to slap steep tariffs on imports, limit labor force growth by deporting immigrants, and boost demand with tax cuts and higher deficits.
The import duties that have been imposed so far are in key ways lower than initially threatened by the administration, but are still significant – and in the latest Consumer Price Index report had begun pushing goods prices higher.
Trump, who campaigned on a promise to lower prices, has insisted that inflation is not a risk and urged immediate rate cuts, slamming Powell for, in the president’s view, forcing his government to pay more to finance its deficits and leading to higher mortgage rates for potential home buyers.
The pressure campaign appeared to culminate last week when administration criticism of a Fed building renovation project led Trump to visit the site to see it for himself. The visit seemed to put to rest risks that Trump would try to fire Powell over the project, even as the rate cut demands continue.
Powell has said he intends to serve as Fed chief until his term expires next May.
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao)
