The 2025 fantasy football season delivered some of the most shocking busts in recent memory — from Justin Jefferson’s plummet to Brian Thomas Jr.’s stalled breakout. This is the definitive guide to why they failed and what needs to change in 2026 to avoid repeating the same mistakes.
One of my favorite movie series throughout my late high school and early college days was The Matrix. Back then, the martial arts sequences (“I know kung-fu”) had me on the edge of my seat. And there’s probably a picture floating around the internet somewhere of me dressed as Morpheus for Halloween. But later on, the concept of choice and Neo’s conversations with The Oracle came back to me at this point of the fantasy season.
I’ve made plenty of wrong calls throughout the course of the 2025 season. Just watch the compilation the crew put together after Justin Boone ran away with the Primetime Picks segment. But when you’re in the thick of it, there’s always another week to work out — a new set of angles to consider. Now, with some time on our hands, let’s go through some of this year’s biggest busts. And not just why we made the choice, but also what it’d take for us to consider them again in ‘26.
Justin Jefferson, Vikings (Draft Rank: WR2, EOS Rank: WR26)
Let’s be honest with each other here. Everybody who drafted Justin Jefferson in the early first round knew the risks with his situation. But his ADP, at worst, indicated that we were willing to push the concerns coming out of training camp aside. Besides, HC Kevin O’Connell had built up trust within the fanbase and fantasy community over the years. From Kirk Cousins to “The Passtronaut Game,” O’Connell’s status as a QB whisperer was untarnished. And to start the season, the results were favorable for folks who took the plunge on Jefferson:
Week 1 was about as good a season-opener as the Vikings and fantasy folks could’ve hoped. Jefferson had a 39% target share, caught J.J. McCarthy’s first TD and the Vikings won in primetime. However, McCarthy’s peripherals set off alarm bells. He averaged -0.53 EPA per dropback with a 39.1% passing success rate on just 20 attempts. In other words, what we saw wasn’t sustainable. However, whatever development plans O’Connell had for McCarthy went out the window, leaving Jefferson in the worst situation possible.
- w/ Carson Wentz: 29.4% (target share), 68% (catchable target rate), 18.2 (PPR PPG)
- w/ McCarthy: 30.4%, 60%, 9.4
- w/ Max Brosmer: 25.6%, 65%, 4.7
I brought this up back in Week 8, fully acknowledging that Carson Wentz was a disaster, but he at least knew how to get the ball to Jefferson. I’m sure people with Jefferson on their roster went through the same process each week. They’d see him averaging 8.2 targets per game (tied for ninth-most among receivers), check the matchup and pray for a touchdown.
His problem wasn’t volume. It was either an inaccurate throw or an ill-timed miscue that dragged him down. But (hopefully) those are things the QB and WR can work on over the offseason.
