Republican Wisconsin Rep. Tom Tiffany is the clear favorite among likely Republican primary voters in the state’s open 2026 gubernatorial race, according to recent polling.
Tiffany holds a commanding lead over a hypothetical primary field with 40% of the vote, followed by Washington County executive Josh Schoemann at 13% and former Navy Seal and manufacturing executive Bill Berrien at 10%. Tiffany is well-positioned to secure the Republican nomination if he enters the race and would likely cruise to the general election with President Donald Trump’s endorsement, according to a polling memo conducted by Republican firm Fabrizio, Lee & Associates and exclusively obtained by the Daily Caller News Foundation. (RELATED: GOP Rep Goes After Loophole Allowing Chinese To Abuse Birthright Citizenship In Northern Mariana Island)
“Tom Tiffany is in a solid position and is the clear front-runner in the Republican Primary for Wisconsin Governor,” the polling memo states. “An endorsement from President Trump and educating voters about Tiffany and his record would propel his lead even further, with either option essentially sealing the deal for the primary nomination.”
Tiffany, a three-term lawmaker and member of the conservative Republican Study Committee has said he will make a decision to run for governor by the end of September. Schoemann and Berrien have already declared for the race.
Republicans are seeking to take back the governor’s mansion in the key battleground state following two terms of Democratic rule under Governor Tony Evers. Trump narrowly won Wisconsin last November, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris by roughly 30,000 votes. Evers announced in July that he would not run for a third term.
WISCONSIN DELLS, WISCONSIN – JUNE 14: Tony Evers speaks onstage during attends the Wisconsin Democrats 2025 Convention at Chula Vista Resort on June 14, 2025 in Wisconsin Dells, Wisconsin. (Photo by Daniel Boczarski/Getty Images for Democratic Party of Wisconsin)
The president has yet to publicly back a candidate in the Republican primary. The survey found that a Trump endorsement would grow Tiffany’s edge over the primary field to 60%, leaving his two declared opponents with less than 10% of the vote respectively.
Informing voters about Tiffany’s record in Congress further expanded his lead over the other Republican candidates in the race, according to the polling memo. Voters were 92% more likely to vote for the three-term lawmaker after hearing about his “solid border record.”
Democrats are also likely to have a crowded primary field vying for the open seat. Democratic Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez is the only well-known candidate in the race thus far, entering the race less than 24 hours after Evers’ announced his retirement.
The multimodal survey of 600 likely Wisconsin Republican primary voters was conducted between July 28 and 31. Tiffany holds a commanding lead well outside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4%. Thirty-seven percent of respondents said they were undecided about their preferred candidate.
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