Erdogan rival arrested days before becoming presidential candidate

Turkish authorities detained Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on Wednesday, accusing him of corruption and connections to terrorist organizations. The arrest comes just before the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) was set to nominate him to challenge President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the 2028 election. 

Imamoglu, a leading figure in the CHP, gained prominence after winning the Istanbul mayoral election in 2019, ending over two decades of control by Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the city of 19 million. Recent opinion polls have indicated that Imamoglu could defeat Erdogan in a presidential vote.

On Wednesday morning, as authorities arrived to detain him, Imamoglu shared a video on X declaring, “We are facing great tyranny, but I want you to know that I will not be discouraged.” 

CHP leader Ozgur Ozel condemned the arrest, describing it as “a coup against our next president.” Despite the detention, CHP plans to proceed with its scheduled primary on March 23. 

The Turkish government has denied opposition allegations of political interference, asserting that the judiciary operates independently.

The arrest has sparked protests across Istanbul. Authorities have responded by banning demonstrations in the city for four days and reportedly restricting access to social media platforms. 

The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office stated that approximately 100 people, including journalists and businessmen, had been taken into custody on suspicion of criminal activities related to municipal tenders. They also said a separate investigation had resulted in charges against Imamoglu and six others, accused of aiding the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is designated a terrorist organization in the country.

The arrest followed the revocation of Imamoglu’s degree by Istanbul University, citing “nullity” and “clear error” in his 1990 transfer from a private institution in northern Cyprus. Imamoglu has said he will challenge the move in court. If upheld, the cancelation effectively disqualifies him from running for president, as Turkish law mandates that candidates hold a valid university degree. 

In a show of solidarity, Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas announced on Tuesday that he is suspending consideration of his own run. Yavas stated, “I am announcing to the public that I am suspending my decision to evaluate my presidential candidacy… until this unlawfulness is eliminated.”

Following the arrest, the country’s financial markets experienced significant turmoil. The Turkish lira depreciated by up to 14.5% against the US dollar, while the BIST 100 equity index dropped 5.9%.

The next Turkish presidential election is scheduled for 2028. Erdogan has reached his two-term limit and is ineligible to run again unless the constitution is amended or an early election is held.  In the 2019 municipal elections, Erdogan’s AKP party suffered significant losses, with the CHP winning major cities, including Istanbul and Ankara.

Erdogan himself began his political career as mayor of Istanbul. He also spent time in jail in 1999 for reciting a poem that a court ruled incited religious hatred.