All of the evidence suggests Thomas Tuchel is likely to opt for a back four when he takes charge of his first game as England head coach against Albania at Wembley.
That will come as a surprise to many England fans – and many Chelsea fans – because his preference during his time at Stamford Bridge was very markedly for a system incorporating three centre-backs and two wing backs. Tuchel opted for that system for 87 per cent of his Chelsea matches.
However, if you look at his entire club career of 426 league games for Mainz, Borussia Dortmund, Paris St-Germain, Chelsea and Bayern Munich, you can see he has selected a flat back four for 75 per cent of matches in total. His preference is clear.
And if you look at the make-up of this England squad – and, indeed, the resources at Tuchel’s disposal more generally, when all the players are fit and available – then there is a strong case to suggest a back four would best suit England’s strengths.
Why a back four suits England better
Let’s drill down into that in a bit more detail. To play with a back three or back five you firstly need three world class centre-backs. And more in reserve to cover absences and poor form.
If we are being brutally honest, it is a position that England have struggled to find consistency with for many years. There is Marc Guehi, Levi Colwill and Ezri Konsa in this camp, together with Dan Burn for the first time. And there is the injured John Stones and Harry Maguire who will hopefully be available in the future.
For balance in a back three, you need one left footer – only Colwill and Burn fit that criteria.
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England captain Harry Kane explains the differences between Thomas Tuchel and Gareth Southgate
More importantly, you need a number of specialist wing-backs on both flanks if you are to play the 3-4-2-1 or 3-5-1-1 formation effectively. And again, full-back is not a position that Gareth Southgate was blessed in, for most of the second half of his tenure.
Even now, despite the returning Reece James, Tuchel is without the archetypal attacking wing-backs in Trent Alexander-Arnold and Southgate’s stalwart Luke Shaw. In fact, the only ‘recognised’ left back in this current England squad is the uncapped 18-year-old Myles Lewis-Skelly, who has jumped two age groups to be here.
Simply – does Tuchel have enough specialist defenders and wing-backs at his disposal to be able to play with a back three, even if he wanted to?
Furthermore, it is impossible to create a formation that has wing-backs and wingers – unless you sacrifice a number 10 in the side.
That would be bonkers, when you have such world class talents as Jude Bellingham, Cole Palmer and Phil Foden at your disposal (even though right now, one is injured – Palmer – and one not in his best form – Foden).
And so if Tuchel chose to go with wing-backs, he would be binning one of the two positions in which I would argue England are among the strongest in the world.
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Jordan Pickford says England need to take the next step under new manager Thomas Tuchel as he looks to go level on caps with childhood hero Joe Hart in this camp
In terms of wide attacking talent, think Bukayo Saka (when fit), Marcus Rashford, Foden, Anthony Gordon, Jarrod Bowen, Eberechi Eze, Noni Madueke (when fit).
There are few nations that can hold a candle to that sort of attacking talent. And so if Tuchel opts for wing-backs, he would have to have a whole host of England’s most talented backsides warming the bench.
Three centre-backs is, I’m sure, an option Tuchel will consider when specific situations arise – against specific strong opposition who may play with two strikers; if England have specific injury problems; maybe in matches, if he wants to switch things up, for example.
But the smart money would be on Tuchel opting for a flat back four for the majority of his reign as head of English football – it represents both the philosophical and the pragmatic ideal.
