Employers across the U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, new federal data shows, a sign the labor market is still humming despite ongoing economic uncertainty caused by the Trump administration’s trade policies.
The numbers
Job growth was stronger than expected in April, the Labor Department said Friday in its monthly employment report. Payroll gains exceeded economist forecasts of 135,000 last month, according to financial data firm FactSet.
The nation’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, matching forecasts from analysts polled by FactSet.
What it means
The data suggests the labor market remains healthy despite rising concerns about how the Trump administration’s tariff policies will impact economic activity.
Carl Weinberg, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said in a research note that the stronger-than-expected pace of job-creation last month shows the risks of a recession are low, at least for now.
“There is nothing to complain about here. You cannot find any evidence of a nascent recession in these figures,” he said, while noting that tariffs are likely to take a toll on hiring in the months to come.”We are waiting for layoffs to begin and for claims and unemployment to rise,” he added. “This month’s payrolls figure was a lot better than expected, but the strong trend in employment does not last in our forecast.”
Health care companies, along with the transportation and warehousing sector, saw the largest gains in employment last month, adding 51,000 and 29,000 jobs, respectively.
The jump in transportation and warehousing jobs — more than double its 12-month average of 12,000 — was notable. Cory Stahle, an economist from Indeed Hiring Lab economist, thinks that could indicate companies are adding to their inventories ahead of tariffs taking effect and boosting their costs.
Federal employment declined by 9,000, up from 4,000 in March. Government layoffs have risen in recent months because of cuts by the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, which the Trump administration touts as a cost-saving effort.
“April may have been the last month when we didn’t see the aggregate impact of trade war 2.0, DOGE job cuts and tight immigration policy. But look closely enough and there are hints, like the slight decline in manufacturing payrolls and another drop in federal government jobs,” Elyse Ausenbaugh, head of investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Wealth Management, said in an email.
Although the latest employment numbers suggest a steady job market, government data this week showed that more Americans are filing for unemployment benefits as layoffs mount. Jobless claims increased 18,000 to 241,000 for the week ending April 26, the highest level since mid-February, according to Oxford Economics.
“Continued claims are more volatile week to week, but remain elevated, signaling that workers who lose their job are facing challenges in finding new employment,” Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said in a research note.
In another important snapshot of the economy this week, the nation’s gross domestic product shrank 0.3% in the first three months of the year, down from growth of 2.4% in the previous quarter. The main reason for the sharp decline was the rush by consumers and businesses to order imported goods ahead of tariffs taking effect (Imports reduce GDP, while exports increase it.)
What experts are saying
Experts say the economy has proved resilient, with steady hiring despite concern over the Trump administration’s trade policies. A recession appears unlikely for now, although economists note it could take several months for tariff-induced instability to appear in the government’s monthly job numbers.
“Some of the increase in employment in April… reflects a burst of pre-tariff activity, which will unravel over the next couple months,” Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a research note.
Soft data like consumer confidence survey, polling and jobless claims show signs of economic weakness.
The solid job gains in April also increase the odds that the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark interest rate steady when policy makers meet next week on May 6-7, experts say.
“The healthy 177,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in April and unchanged unemployment rate will reassure the Fed that there is no need to be hasty in lowering interest rates when it meets next week,” Bradley Saunders, North America economist with Capital Economics, told investors in a report.
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