A new El Niño is on the horizon, but its strength is anyone’s guess. Here’s what the forecast means for the upcoming hurricane season and why 2026 could be another record-breaking year.
On March 14, 2026, NOAA issued an El Niño Watch, marking a key shift in the climate outlook for the coming year NOAA’s ENSO Advisory. This alert means conditions are favorable for El Niño—the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle—to develop over the next six months. With a 62% chance of formation between June and August, and higher odds expected by fall, the stage is set for a climate event that could influence everything from hurricane activity to global temperature records. Yet, as experts warn, the spring forecasting season carries inherent uncertainties that complicate predictions.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rise above average, disrupting atmospheric circulation worldwide. The opposite phase, La Niña, features cooler waters, while ENSO-neutral conditions prevail in between. These cycles repeat irregularly every 2 to 7 years, with El Niño having been slightly more frequent in recent decades NOAA’s ENSO Overview. Currently, the ongoing La Niña is projected to fade within the next month, with ENSO-neutral conditions likely to dominate much of the Northern Hemisphere summer before any El Niño takes hold.
The timing and intensity of this potential El Niño are far from certain. NOAA’s forecast indicates roughly a one-in-three chance of a strong event by year-end, though current models favor a weak-to-moderate episode. This uncertainty stems partly from the boreal spring predictability barrier, a well-documented limitation where forecasts issued during this transitional season are less reliable ABC News Report. Michelle L’Heureux, a physical scientist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, cautions: “Keep in mind that because we’re making these forecasts during the spring season, a time of lower model accuracy, so there is large uncertainty.” The World Meteorological Organization reinforces this, noting that predictions at this time of year are “typically less reliable” due to the spring barrier ABC News on Climate Trends.
Even if El Niño forms, its impacts won’t be immediate. Jon Gottschalck, Chief of NOAA’s Operational Prediction Branch, explains that consistent effects usually appear 1-2 months after onset, varying with other climate factors and seasonal timing ABC News Interview. For a summer development, significant weather shifts may not materialize until late autumn or winter, aligning with El Niño’s most pronounced historical influence.
Typical U.S. Weather Impacts and Their Variability
El Niño’s legacy on U.S. weather is nuanced, with patterns emerging most reliably from late autumn through early spring after its onset Climate.gov ENSO Update. However, every El Niño differs in magnitude and geographic reach, leading to variable outcomes. Andrew Kruczkiewicz of Columbia Climate School emphasizes: “Every El Niño is different in terms of timing, magnitude, and geographic extent, and such differences lead to variability in the impacts—on temperatures and rainfall, for example—on a global scale.”
Historically, the following trends are observed during El Niño winters:
- Temperature: Warmer-than-average conditions in the northern U.S. and Alaska; near- to below-average temperatures from Texas to the Southeast.
- Precipitation: Wetter-than-average conditions in southern California, the Southwest, Gulf Coast, and Southeast; drier conditions in the northern Rockies, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes.
- Snowfall: Increased odds in the southern Rockies, south-central Plains, mid-Atlantic, and coastal Northeast; decreased odds in the northern Rockies, northern Plains, and Great Lakes.
These patterns are not guaranteed, but they provide a baseline for risk assessment as the event evolves.
Hurricane Season: Atlantic Suppression vs. Pacific Enhancement
El Niño’s influence on tropical cyclones is starkly regional. In the Atlantic hurricane basin, El Niño typically suppresses activity by increasing vertical wind shear—changes in wind speed and direction with height—which can disrupt storm formation NOAA Hurricane Facts. Andy Hazelton of the University of Miami notes that El Niño will likely “increase sinking air and upper level wind shear over the Atlantic,” dampening the 2026 season ABC News Report. Conversely, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season often sees above-average activity due to more favorable conditions.
The ultimate impact hinges on El Niño’s strength and timing relative to the peak hurricane months. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic—currently average or slightly below—could modulate the suppressive effects if they warm significantly by summer. NOAA’s official hurricane outlook is due in May, providing a clearer picture after El Niño’s trajectory solidifies ABC News Timeline.
Global Temperature Records in the Balance
El Niño’s arrival adds another layer to the planet’s relentless warming trend. The 2024 global average temperature ranked as the highest on record, bolstered by the strong 2023-24 El Niño event—one of the five strongest ever recorded NOAA 2024 Global Report. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that El Niño “played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024” ABC News Coverage.
Short-term El Niño spikes overlay the long-term warming driven by human greenhouse gas emissions. Following the 2023-24 event, 2025 still ranked as the third-warmest year globally, as La Niña conditions provided a temporary offset NOAA 2025 Global Ranking. NOAA estimates a >90% chance that 2026 will rank among the five warmest years, though currently only a 1% probability of surpassing 2024. These odds could climb significantly in 2027 if a strong El Niño persists, as warming effects often lag the peak and extend into the following year.
Why This Matters Now: Preparedness in an Era of Climate Extremes
The confluence of a potential El Niño with baseline climate change elevates risks. Communities should anticipate:
- Heightened flood threats in the southern U.S., particularly California and the Gulf Coast, during wetter winters.
- Drought intensification in the northern tier, affecting agriculture and water resources.
- Altered wildfire seasons, with drier conditions potentially extending fire risks in the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin.
- Disruptions to global food systems from shifting rainfall patterns in key agricultural regions like Southeast Asia and South America.
These impacts are not isolated; they interact with existing vulnerabilities. For instance, warmer global oceans could amplify El Niño’s temperature effects, while infrastructure designed for historical climate norms may face unprecedented stress. The spring predictability barrier means officials and the public must plan for a range of scenarios, not a single forecast.
The current ENSO transition also highlights the acceleration of climate extremes. The past two years have already seen record warmth, and an El Niño addition could push 2026 or 2027 into unprecedented territory. This isn’t merely about natural cycles—it’s about how these cycles compound human-caused warming, creating compound disasters that demand proactive adaptation.
For now, vigilance is key. NOAA’s El Niño Watch is a call to monitor updates, especially the May hurricane outlook and summer forecasts. As conditions clarify, the implications for seasonal weather, disaster preparedness, and climate policy will become sharper.
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