Uncertainty is in the air, but it might be June at the earliest before we see the results of the new tariffs, say leading economists.
According to the latest Employment Situation Summary, issued by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on May 2nd, for total nonfarm payroll employment, 177,00 jobs were added in April. This was down slightly from 185,000 jobs added in March, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2 percent.
Things seem to be looking good, except for the fact that even pre-tariffs, the U.S. GDP shrunk for the first time in three years (decreasing at an annual rate of 0.3 percent) from January to March.
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However, it wasn’t until April 2nd that President Trump announced a minimum 10 percent tariff on all U.S. imports, effective from April 5th, with higher tariffs on imports from 57 countries, ranging from 11% to 50%.
The last ‘before’ jobs report?
Referring to the latest Employment Situation Summary, Appcast economist Andrew Flowers asked in a recent video: “Is this the last ‘before’ jobs report?”
He highlights that healthcare added 50,000 jobs, leisure and hospitality added 24,000 jobs, while professional and business services added 17,000 jobs.
Discussing the ‘before’, Flowers says a job gain of 29,000 in transportation and warehousing jobs in April was indicative of consumers and businesses frontloading their purchases of foreign goods.
As a consumer, you’ve probably already been targeted by online price reduction ads on items before retail prices are raised due to tariffs. This has caused influxes of sales and increased the need for trucking and warehousing staff. But how sustainable is this rise?
He also points to federal workforce reductions of 9,000 last month, which was expected.
Reflecting on the April jobs report, Flowers’ outlook on Q2 is mixed. “It’s showing strength, but the tariffs are a major shock. We’ve seen huge declines in transoceanic shipments. There’s anecdotal evidence from businesses that inventories are being depleted as consumers and businesses are preparing for the tariff impacts that could really materialize in the coming weeks and months.”
H2 will likely reveal true impact
Meanwhile, Glassdoor’s lead economist Daniel Zhao agrees that this report might be the benchmark we’ll measure tariff impacts against, but May might be too soon.
In a lengthy LinkedIn post, he highlighted much of the same figures as Andrew Flowers did, but also shared that manufacturing employment fell by 1,000 in April.
Though a modest decline and early days, it may disappoint voters who took a punt on the president’s campaign promises to revive American manufacturing.
Zhao stresses that the true impact of the tariffs won’t show up quickly. “Keep in mind that the job market can be a lagging indicator for the overall economy as it takes time for businesses to hire and fire workers at a scale that shows up in the national economic data.”
“Tariff impacts will also be staggered as many employers took anticipatory measures to build up inventories in advance and some sectors are more exposed than others. The back half of the year is really where the full impact of tariffs are likely to become clear. And of course, this all depends on what tariffs look like over the next few months as tariff policy feels like it’s changing on a near-daily basis.”
This means many companies and organizations are sitting tight, and are avoiding making any big decisions. Spooked by unpredictability, many companies have paused or canceled hiring until the economy is on clearer footing.
It’s already a tough job market out there, as anyone hunting will know, and this uncertainty doesn’t help matters.
Concurrently, the federal firing freeze will last until July 15th at least, plus there’s the fact that over 121,000 federal employees were laid off in the first quarter of 2025, not including those who took voluntary buyouts.
Competition is fierce, and job opportunities are fewer and fewer. Overall job postings are down 7.4% year-over-year as of April 2025, according to Aura Intelligence.
Plus, real-time data from KPMG shows that job postings are down in major states such as California, New York, and Massachusetts, and with especially notable declines in Washington, DC, Virginia, and Maryland due to federal government cuts.
It hasn’t been this difficult to job hunt in a very long time. Additionally, those who are already employed but seeking a new opportunity may be burdened by extra workloads due to hiring freezes, and may be too burnt out to job hunt in the evenings and weekends. If you’re navigating this challenging job market, you can stay informed about new opportunities as they become available on The Hill’s Job Board.
Updated daily with a range of roles in policy, communications, and related fields, it’s an extremely valuable resource. Bookmark the link below, and visit regularly to stay up to date.
Ready to find a new role? Browse thousands of jobs on The Hill Job Board
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